Newsletters 12/11/08 - 12/15/08

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCES

11 WASHINGTON over *Cincinnati
Late Score Forecast:
WASHINGTON 27 - *Cincinnati 10
Fundamentally-sound, strong-in-the-pits Washington eager to be facing one of the NFL’s struggling teams after
having to play seven games so far vs. powerful NFC East rivals NYG, Dallas & Philly, plus Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
Things promise to go much better vs. the 1-11-1 Bengals and their backup QB, shuffled OL, and injury-thinned
defense. Even if Clinton Portis is sidelined for the Skins, LaDell Betts (1154 YR in 2006) is an excellent backup.
Every win crucial for Skins’ fading playoff chances.

10 *BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh
Late Score Forecast:
*BALTIMORE 23 - Pittsburgh 10
It was just about this time of the year in 2007 that the Ravens nearly defeated the then-undefeated New England
Patriots in Baltimore, losing only after a series of controversial late calls on a cold and windy night. This year, the
Raven defense is healthier, and the offense is vastly improved, thanks to rookie QB Joe Flacco and poised, clever,
rookie HC John Harbaugh. Rough-tough Baltimore is 4-2 SU last 6 meetings vs. Pittsburgh.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nelly's Greensheet

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->RATING 5 SAN DIEGO (-5) over Kansas City
RATING 4 NY GIANTS (+3) over Dallas
RATING 3 WASHINGTON (-6½) over Cincinnati
RATING 2 BALTIMORE (-1½) over Pittsburgh
RATING 1 ATLANTA (NL) over Tampa Bay
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, lines are subject to change
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 11, 2008
CHICAGO (-3) New Orleans (45) 7:15 PM
The playoff hopes for these teams might appear slim but the
opportunities will be there for the winner of this game as many of the
other Wild Card contenders will face tougher closing schedules. The
Bears have gone 0-3 against the NFC South this season but the three
games were lost by a combined total of eight points. New Orleans has
now won three of the last four with covers in all four of those games.
Despite being a popular team with a bad defense that has
underachieved in terms of preseason projections, the Saints are
somehow 9-4 ATS on the year, but consider that three covers came by a
point or less. The Bears pass defense has not performed well and the
Saints should be able to play on. SAINTS BY 7
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 14, 2008
Green Bay (-1) JACKSONVILLE (45) 12:00 PM
With three straight losses the Packers have played their way out of the
playoff picture but Jacksonville is a tough team to back, sitting at 3-10
ATS on the season. The Jaguars have lost outright in six of the past
seven games with the lone win coming against the winless Lions.
Jacksonville has not covered in any home game this season and the
Green Bay offense has shown much more potential, scoring at least 21
points in each of the last five despite only one win. PACKERS BY 6
INDIANAPOLIS (-16½) Detroit (45½) 12:00 PM
The Colts are back in the public eye and appear to be in command of a
wild card spot. Indianapolis won big last week with turnover help but the
previous five wins all came by six points or less. Detroit has covered in
five of the last nine games and the Lions played inspired ball last week
despite another tough loss. The Lions are 9-1 ATS the last ten instances
when getting double-digits and the Colts are overvalued. COLTS BY 10
Washington (-6½) CINCINNATI (36) 12:00 PM
The Redskins have now lost four of the last five games but the Redskins
could win out through a favorable schedule to finish 10-6 and that might
be enough to make the playoffs. Each of the last four losses came
against quality opponents and although the Redskins have not delivered
blowouts they have won four of the last five road games. Cincinnati
keeps delivering turnovers and the Bengals have not topped 13 points in
any of the last four games. REDKSKINS BY 10
ATLANTA (NL) Tampa Bay 12:00 PM
This is a tough game to handicap without Monday’s result as Tampa Bay
and Carolina face the huge first place showdown. Atlanta let a key game
slip away last week but this could be an opportunity to catch Tampa Bay
even though the Bucs have great defensive numbers. Atlanta has the
second best rushing offense in the NFL and the Falcons have only lost
once at home all season. FALCONS BY 7
MIAMI (-6½) San Francisco (43) 12:00 PM
This is a tough travel spot for the 49ers back on the East Coast for the
second time in three weeks. The 49ers have now won three of the last
four games however, beating AFC East teams each of the last two
weeks. Last week’s win was huge for Miami given the extra attention of
the international stage and the division rival and this could be a flat spot
for the Dolphins after tying of the division lead. Miami is winning games
but is just 2-5 ATS at home and does not pull away. DOLPHINS BY 3
ST. LOUIS (NL) Seattle 12:00 PM
Although Seattle lost last week the Seahawks had one of their better
offensive games and nearly knocked off New England. The Rams have
now lost seven in a row and the offense has not topped 16 points in any
of the last six games. Home field has not meant much in this series that
Seattle has had recent control over. Seattle has scored 68 more points
than the Rams while allowing 59 fewer points so far this season so these
teams have not been as equal as the matching 2-11 records appear.
Even without Hasselbeck Seattle has a better shot. SEAHAWKS BY 7
NEW YORK JETS (NL) Buffalo 12:00 PM
The Bills have out-scored opponents by four points despite a losing
record. Buffalo lost at home to the Jets in a nightmare game featuring
turnovers and the Bills offense has not been the same since. Buffalo has
scored just three points in each of the last two games but the Jets have
lost back-to-back games as favorites. Look for the Bills to put up a good
fight in this division game even if QB Edwards is unable to go again. The
Jets have not been impressive outside a few big wins. JETS BY 3
Tennessee (-3) HOUSTON (44) 12:00 PM
Houston has not given up on the season and the Texans have now won
three consecutive games. Much like last season Houston is playing well
late in the year and this game tests how far that progress has taken
them to build for next season. The Titans continue to cruise as last
week’s win was dominant in the box score and the scoreboard.
Tennessee has not lost S/U or ATS on the road this season but there is
little urgency for the Titans in this match-up. The Texans have had some
success as a home underdog but it is tough to trust the Texans defense
as several opponents have posted big numbers. TITANS BY 7
BALTIMORE (-1½) Pittsburgh (33) 3:15 PM
This is a huge game as Pittsburgh can clinch the division with a win but
the loser could be in line for a tumble to a questionable playoff position.
Both teams face very tough road games next on the schedule, making
this game even more critical. The first meeting between these teams
was a 3-point game defensively these teams have nearly identical
numbers, both sitting on top of the league. Baltimore has actually had
the higher-scoring offense this season and the Ravens have been very
tough at home this year with only one loss. Pittsburgh was very lucky to
win last week and the Steelers may be vulnerable. RAVENS BY 4
CAROLINA (NL) Denver 3:15 PM
Denver has not officially wrapped up the AFC West and the things could
get interesting in the coming weeks if San Diego can apply some
pressure. The Broncos have been out-scored on the year but Denver
has delivered wins in four of the last five games, including three outright
wins on the road as underdogs. The Panthers could face a letdown after
last week’s big game and it will be a very tough finish. BRONCOS BY 3
San Diego (-5) KANSAS CITY (46) 3:15 PM
The Chargers finally delivered a strong offensive game last week and
none of San Diego’s eight losses came against a team that is more than
one-game below .500. The first meeting between these teams was a
nail-bitter as the Chiefs went for a 2-point conversion at the end but
missed. San Diego has a great record as a road favorite and although
one win does not impress us Kansas City seems to find ways to lose
despite showing some positive signs. CHARGERS BY 14
ARIZONA (NL) Minnesota 3:05 PM
The Vikings are banged up but back-up QB Jackson did play well in
relief last week. The Vikings got by the winless Lions but this is a key
game for Minnesota as the final two games could be very tough.
Although this is a tough venue Arizona is tough to trust having locked up
a historic division title last week. The Cardinals have only two wins over
winning teams this season. VIKINGS BY 4
New England (-7) OAKLAND (40) 3:15 PM
The Patriots nearly got caught last week and facing a second straight
game out West is a tough situation. The Raiders appear to have quit,
giving little last week despite facing a natural division rival. Oakland has
been out-scored by 120 points on the season and the Raiders have
covered in just five games all season. There should be no lack of focus
for New England given the tight division race. PATRIOTS BY 13
DALLAS (-3) NY Giants (44) 7:15 PM
The Giants have clinched the NFC East but this is not the type of team
that will be content to coast to the finish. After last week’s ugly loss New
York will be ready to play this week and Dallas could be the flat team
after blowing a game they appeared to have locked up. The Giants won
easily the first time these teams met and although the Cowboys have
been impressive on the defensive end the history of poor late season
play and the mistakes from QB Romo will be costly. GIANTS BY 10
MONDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2008
PHILADELPHIA (-14) Cleveland (37½) 7:35 PM
The recent distractions caught up to the Giants last week and
Philadelphia took advantage with a key win that keeps the Eagles in the
playoff chase. The Browns were worked last week but Cleveland has
been competitive in several games against quality teams. Cleveland
could be in better shape this week with more time for QB Dorsey and
two big wins from the Eagles should not mask a season or mediocrity
and mistakes from Philadelphia. EAGLES BY 7
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Goldsheet

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->THE GOLD SHEET

KEY RELEASES
GREEN BAY by 13 over Jacksonville
ARIZONA by 14 over Minnesota
UNDER the total in the Cleveland-Philadelphia game (Monday)

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 11
*CHICAGO 27 - New Orleans 20—Soldier Field has been a minefield the
L2Ys for N.O., which has lost both visits (including numbing 39-14 NFC title
game in ‘06). Possible wintry conditions a lot different for Drew Brees, who has
19 TDs vs. 4 ints. at the Superdome, and 7 TDs vs. 10 ints. away. Depleted
Saints defense might lose DE Will Smith to suspension (check status); the
offense, Deuce McAllister. Advantage Chicago if Bears can establish solid RB
Matt Forte (1081 YR; product of Tulane), opening play-action opportunities for Kyle Orton. TV—NFL NETWORK
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 14
Green Bay 27 - JACKSONVILLE 14—Loss of Pro Bowl-caliber CB
Rashean Mathis another major blow in the star-crossed season of the Jaguars
(0-6 vs. the spread at home TY!), especially vs. G.B.’s deep crew of talented
wideouts. Meanwhile, Packers—although playoff hopes tiny—showing enough
young depth at CB that they were thinking of moving Charles Woodson to
safety, where his good tackling and nose for the ball might allow him to make
more impact plays for fading defense. Lacking quality wideouts and a healthy
OL, Jacksonville QB Garrard getting hounded (36 sacks) while scrambling to find receivers.

INDIANAPOLIS 33 - Detroit 10—The winless ‘76 Tampa Bay Bucs getting
increasingly nervous, as Detroit’s narrow miss last week vs. Minnesota might
have been the Lions’ best chance to avoid an 0-16 mark and keep the
expansion 0-14 Bucs in the record book. Somewhat surprisingly, Detroit has
covered its last 4 on the road. But there’s little chance the Lions will catch hot,
in-sync, playoff-minded Indy (6 straight wins) overlooking them. The Colts
appear to be themselves again, especially with the defense not allowing a TD
the last two weeks and Peyton Manning in tune again with Marvin Harrison (67-
yard TDC last week vs. Cincy).

Washington 21 - CINCINNATI 10—Only a 21-19 victory over Jacksonville
Nov. 2 and an ugly tie 2 weeks later vs. Philly are keeping the Bengals from riding
the same train to infamy being driven in 2008 by the Detroit Lions. Ryan Fitzpatrick
(59%, 6 TDs, 9 ints.), while he hasn’t exactly self-destructed, is only 2-7 vs. the
spread TY. Although the Redskins (1-7 vs. spread last 8 overall) still looking for
more impact plays on defense, they run better and defend so much better than
Cincy (only 13 sacks TY) that it’s tough to recommend mistake-prone host.

ATLANTA 23 - Tampa Bay 13—Much-improved Atlanta has guarded its
home turf well TY, winning & covering 5 times and stumbling only 24-20 vs.
Denver. Moreover, quick-study rookie QB Matt Ryan (14 TDs, 7 ints.) now
much better prepared to face T.B.’s sophisticated zone defenses than he was
in first meeting way back in Week Two. With Ryan’s help, Falcons’ WR quartet
of Roddy White, Michael *******, Harry Douglas & Brian Finneran a formidable
NFL group. Relentless DE John Abraham has 12½ sacks.
MIAMI 20 - San Francisco 19—Miami, now sharing first place (!) in the AFC
East, has done many things well during its turnaround campaign, including
valuing the ball and committing the fewest TOs (10) through the first 3/4 of the
season. However, the reborn Dolphins have not dominated at home, going only
2-5 vs. the spread. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ Mike Singletary has turned out to be
S.F.’s version of Miami’s Tony Sparano, with the Niners going 3-2 SU and 4-1
vs. the spread since Singletary’s debut game, after which the former Bears’
MLB shouted, “We want winners!” (04-Miami +1 24-17...SR: EVEN 5-5)
Seattle 23 - ST. LOUIS 16—When Seattle clubbed the Rams 37-13 in Week
Three, little did the Seahawks know 2008 was going to be a nightmare season
for both these teams, especially in the walkaway campaign for respected HC
Mike Holmgren. Last week, Seattle placed two of its three best OLmen (C Chris
Spencer & LG Mike Wahle) on IR, and Matt Hasselbeck (back) missed another
game. Still, the Seahawks’ effort behind Seneca Wallace (3 TDP vs. N.E.) was
much more inspiring that the continuing string of turnovers, drops, sacks, and
blown scoring chances by the Rams.
NY JETS 24 - Buffalo 13—Both teams have lost two straight. But the Jets—
with Brett Favre at the controls, Thomas Jones (1088 YR) & Leon Washington
(326 YR) doing the running, and NT Kris ******* disrupting things up front—
appear to have a better 2008 future than the banged-up Bills. Buffalo has
notched only 22 sacks & 7 ints. in 13 games. Not good vs. a well-focused Favre.
Bills in the midst of a 1-6 pointspread freefall. Despite recent downturn, N.Y.
still controls its own fate to win the AFC East.
HOUSTON 26 - Tennessee 23—Tennessee is certainly entitled to a
mulligan, as the near-flawless Titans (6-0 vs. the spread away!) has already
clinched the AFC South and has a magic number of one to lock up the AFC
home field throughout the playoffs. But Jeff Fisher’s crew was sloppy last week
vs. Cleveland, when Tennessee got away with 3 giveaways & 13 penalties and
still handily beat the QB-shy Browns. If the Titans not super-sharp this week,
they might not escape improving Houston, which welcomed back QB Schaub
(414 YP!) last week at Green Bay. Note last five “over” in series.)
BALTIMORE 19 - Pittsburgh 10—Through the first 12 games of the season,
the mighty Steel defense led the NFL in yards, points, rush yards, pass yards,
sacks, and combined ints. + sacks. But the Baltimore defense is not far behind.
And precocious Raven rookie QB Joe Flacco (2410 YP, 13 TDs, 10 ints.)
showed in first meeting he’s not intimidated by Pittsburgh, leading a late 76-
yard drive to force OT. Baltimore RB trio of Le’Ron McClain, Willis McGahee &
Ray Rice has pounded for 1581 YR, while Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger
merely getting pounded.
CAROLINA 23 - Denver 21—Bad matchup for both defenses? Carolina RBs
DeAngelo Williams (4.9 ypc) & Jonathan Stewart (4.6 ypc) had rushed for a
combined 1539 yards prior to their Monday night affair with Tampa Bay. Now
they face the Broncos’ 28th-ranked rush defense. However, Denver’s quick,
vastly-underrated OL has allowed only 8 sacks all year! The Broncs, with the
talented Jay Cutler learning steadily, have won their last three road games. And
the underdog is 10-1 in the Broncs’ last 11 contests overall!
San Diego 24 - KANSAS CITY 16—Chargers trying to keep their very slim
playoff chances alive, with their fans grumbling aloud about the team’s dearth
of Pro Bowl-level performances by their favorites following LY’s appearance in
the AFC title game. But one key exception has been QB Philip Rivers (64%, 26
TDs, 10 ints.), who should have fun with K.C.’s weak defense (only six sacks
TY), which is currently on track to posting one of lowest (if not the lowest) sack
totals in NFL history.
ARIZONA 31 - Minnesota 17—Cardinals have clinched their first
divisional crown in 33 years. But expect no let-up, as second-year HC Ken
Whisenhunt has done an excellent job fostering team chemistry despite
management’s contract squabbles with players, the Leinart-Warner QB
question, and the benching of veteran RB Edgerrin James. If it’s Tarvaris Jackson at QB for Gus Frerotte (check status), he’ll have loads of problems dealing with Arizona S Adrian Wilson. Cards’ only home loss TY was vs. the mighty Giants. Arizona 7-1 “over” last 8 home. New England 24 - OAKLAND 12—NFL’s best HC vs. its worst? Best
organization vs. the worst? Too bad the oddsmakers can equalize matters so
easily with the stroke of a pencil. And that the injury gods can strike down key
players (such as Tom Brady and several top Patriot defenders). But Oakland’s
receivers not great, its QBs are still learning, and rookie RB Darren McFadden
still battling turf toe. Will side with offensively-potent Pats, and count on a
couple Raider mistakes. (05-N. ENG. -7' 30-20...SR: EVEN 15-15-1)
*N.Y. Giants 23 - DALLAS 20—Cowboys conquered three beatable foes
(Redskins, 49ers, Seahawks) in Tony Romo’s first three games back from his
little finger injury. And they had the Steelers on the ropes last week, with
Tashard Choice (166 yds. rushing & receiving) subbing well for Marion Barber
III. But some sloppiness and miscommunication did them in. Will those poor
habits continue vs. the NFC East champion Giants, who have covered 13 of
their last 14 on the road? Check status of N.Y. power back Brandon Jacobs
(knee). TV—NBC

MONDAY, DECEMBER 15
UNDER THE TOTAL *PHILADELPHIA 24 - Cleveland 6—Doubledigit
favorites weren’t doing so well in the NFL TY until a good showing last
week. So, with Philly arguably playing some of its best ball of 2008 the last two
weeks, and with Cleveland down to its third-team QB and producing 6, 6 & 9
points the last three games, prefer to lay the lumber. Eagles desperate for
every win, and Ken Dorsey lacks mobility vs. Philly’s rotating DLmen. Philly
has five DD wins TY, while the prognosis is not good for Romeo Crennel’s
continuation as Browns’ HC. Cleveland 8-1 “under” away; Birds 6-2 “under”
last 8 at Linc. CABLE TV—ESPN (04-Philadelphia -7 34-31 (OT)...SR:
Cleveland 31-14-1)
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Power Sweep

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->4* Arizona 31-17
3* Tenn. 34-20
3* San Fran 13 (+) 14
2* Indy. 34-10

3* Packers O 45
3* Chargers U47
3* Seattle O44
2* Titans O 45
2* 49's U43

Angles 3 Tenn, 3 Hew England

System Play Indy.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pointwise Basketball Prophecy 12/5--12/11

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->NBA Key Releases...
1--LA Lakers over Milwaukee (12/7) 121-102
1--San Antonio over Atlanta (12/10) 103-90
2--Miami over OK City (12/6) 111-91
2--Atlanta (+) over Houston (12/9) 95-97
3--Portland (+) over Boston (12/5) 94-95
3--Phoenix (+) over LA Lakers (12/10) 103-104
4--Orlando (+) over Portland (12/8) 104-109
4--Dallas over Charlotte (12/11) 107-95

Best of the Rest...
12/5--Minnesota, Indiana, Toronto
12/6--New Jersey, Denver
12/7--Portland
12/8--Charlotte
12/9--Sam Antonio, Sacramento
12/10--Toronto
12/11--none selected

NCAA Prophecy
Key Releases...
1--Gonzaga over Indiana (12/6) 92-62
2--Iowa over Northern Iowa (12/9) 87-67
2--Boston College (+) over UMass (12/6) 83-78
3--St. Bonaventure over Princeton (12/6) 87-62
4--TCU over Indiana (12/10) 84-64
5--Michigan (+) over Duke (12/6) 78-76

Best of the Rest...
12/5--none selected
12/6--Illinois, Miami (FL), Ill-Chicago, Marquette
12/7--Tulsa, UCLA
12/8--none selected
12/9--St. Joseph's
12/10--San Diego State, Colorado
12/11--Villanova
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CKO /CTO

NFL:

11 WASHINGTON over *Cincinnati
Late Score Forecast:
WASHINGTON 27 - *Cincinnati 10
(Sunday, December 14)

Fundamentally-sound, strong-in-the-pits Washington eager to be facing one of the NFL’s struggling teams after
having to play seven games so far vs. powerful NFC East rivals NYG, Dallas & Philly, plus Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
Things promise to go much better vs. the 1-11-1 Bengals and their backup QB, shuffled OL, and injury-thinned
defense. Even if Clinton Portis is sidelined for the Skins, LaDell Betts (1154 YR in 2006) is an excellent backup.
Every win crucial for Skins’ fading playoff chances.

10 *BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh
Late Score Forecast:
*BALTIMORE 23 - Pittsburgh 10
(Sunday, December 14)

It was just about this time of the year in 2007 that the Ravens nearly defeated the then-undefeated New England
Patriots in Baltimore, losing only after a series of controversial late calls on a cold and windy night. This year, the
Raven defense is healthier, and the offense is vastly improved, thanks to rookie QB Joe Flacco and poised, clever,
rookie HC John Harbaugh. Rough-tough Baltimore is 4-2 SU last 6 meetings vs. Pittsburgh.
NINE-RATED GAME: CHICAGO (-3) vs. New Orleans (THURSDAY NIGHT)—Saints offense drops off markedly out of the dome; N.O.
injury-riddled on defense...ATLANTA (-3; estimated) vs. Tampa Bay—In hotly-contested NFC playoff race, improved, home-lovin’
Falcs might have to kiss their hopes good-by if they don’t win this one.

************************************************** *****
HOOPS:

CONFIDENTIAL TIP-OFF BASKETBALL RELEASES FOR THE WEEK OF DECEMBER 12-18, 2008
Friday, Dec. 12
HOUSTON over *Golden State (NBA)...Golden has dropped 9 in a row SU and is just 4-11 last 15 against the points thru Dec. 7. Warriors
held just one of their last 16 foes below 100 points and yielded 125 ppg in the last 7 games through Dec. 7. Houston, meanwhile, covered
4 of its last 5 on the road prior to visiting Memphis on Dec. 8, and Rockets are getting by without Tracy McGrady, winning 4 of first 6 SU
without T-Mac. One of those wins was a 131-112 spanking of the Warriors.
HOUSTON 119 - *Golden State 105 RATING - 10

Saturday, Dec. 13
*DELAWARE over Ohio (Day game)...CTO scouts report surging Delaware (4 straight covers) ready to make a move in Colonial League,
bolstered by key addition of Saint Joseph’s transfer 5-11 G Jawan Carter (18 ppg), who has quickly blended with a hungry, veteran
supporting cast. So, willing to buck transitioning Ohio (under new HC Croce) playing its 5th game in 8 days, including all-out tussle vs.
ranked instate foe Xavier on Dec. 10. Blue Hens nifty, pass-first sr. PG Brian Johnson (8 ppg, 5 apg) breaks down semi-weary Bobcat
defense that might not be fully-focused. *DELAWARE 75 - Ohio 65 RATING - 10


Sunday, Dec. 14
ILLINOIS-CHICAGO over *Georgia Tech (Day Game)...Beware of UIC, which has proven it can take its act on the road with recent 19-
point thumping of Vandy in Nashville. And Jimmy Collins’ Flames are unique among Horizon entries because of legit post presence
provided by 7-0 sr. VanderMeer (12.7 ppg & 9.3 rpg), who provides half of potent inside-outside combo along with explosive sr. G Mayo
(21 ppg). Tech due to welcome back SG Clinch (academic suspension first semester), but HC Hewitt still trying to get Jackets’ gears
meshing on offense. ILLINOIS-CHICAGO 67 - *Georgia Tech 61 RATING - 11

Tuesday, Dec. 16
L.A. CLIPPERS over Oklahoma City (NBA)...Both of these teams are on positive spread swings at this writing, but closer examination
reveals the Clippers are the choice here. While the Thunder is getting a lot of points due to a 2-19 SU start, the Clippers are playing better
due to the arrival of F Zach Randolph, a legitimate “20 & 10” man up front. Clips were 2-3 SU 1st 5 with Randolph in the starting lineup,
and he already burned OKC for 29 pts. & 19 boards when the Knicks dumped the Thunder in mid-November.
L.A. CLIPPERS 101 - Oklahoma City 92 RATING - 10

Wednesday, Dec. 17
*UTEP over Texas Tech...This rematch for UTEP sandwiched between home and home battles vs. old rival New Mexico State. But you
can bet Miners fired up here after 3 starters fouled out in frustrating 75-68 setback in Lubbock LY, including future NBA draftee 6-5 sr.
G S. Jackson (22 ppg, 7 rpg,), held to only 8 pts. before his disqualification. Word is Raider HC Pat Knight still seeking more vocal
leadership from sr. G Voskull. And with Miners fast-emerging 6-11 frosh C Moultrie (10 ppg, 8 rpg) becoming trusty inside option, softboarding
TT drops to 2-7 as away dog last 1+Ys after first major road test of season.
*UTEP 84 - Texas Tech 71 RATING - 11
SANTA CLARA over *Unlv...Trek to Thomas & Mack Center not about to fluster combative Santa Clara bunch that’s already acquitted itself
well during a early meatgrinder slate. And Broncos might have the ingredient to cause smaller UNLV a headache in bruising 6-10 sr. C
Bryant (18.9 ppg & 12.9 rpg), who could do significant damage on blocks. Moreover, touted 6-6 Texas Tech transfer Decensae White
slated to make SCU debut in this game, and WCC sources say HC Keating pleased with progress of frosh Gs Foster & Rahon, plus juco
PG Petty. SANTA CLARA 67 - *Unlv 66 RATING-10


Thursday, Dec. 18
*LOUISVILLE over Mississippi...Unexpected early loss to Western Kentucky has helped master motivator Rick Pitino quickly hone the
focus of his talented, veteran Louisville team. The Cardinals followed that setback to the Hilltoppers with ruthless beatdowns of
competent Indiana State & Ohio squads by a combined score of 174-99! Sure, victory might not come so easily against SEC rep Ole Miss.
But with Rebel Gs David Huertas & Chris Warren (combined 42 ppg) forced to work extra hard handling the rock against Pitino’s relentless
defensive pressure, count on deeeeeeeeep Louisville to eventually pull away to comfortable victory in front of supportive crowd across
the river in nearby Cincinnati. *LOUISVILLE 87 - Mississippi 61 RATING - 10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET

The Gold Sheet EXTRA! Technical Play of the Week
NFL: TENNESSEE-HOUSTON “Over”...Series “over” last 5 and 7 of last
8; BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh...Ravens have covered 6 of last 7 in series;
DENVER over Carolina...Broncos have won and covered last 3 on road (all
as dog!).

KEY RELEASES

NFL ANALYSIS
THE GOLD SHEET PAGE 2
GREEN BAY by 13 over Jacksonville
ARIZONA by 14 over Minnesota
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
UNDER the total in the Cleveland-Philadelphia game (Monday)


Green Bay 27 - JACKSONVILLE 14—Loss of Pro Bowl-caliber CB
Rashean Mathis another major blow in the star-crossed season of the Jaguars
(0-6 vs. the spread at home TY!), especially vs. G.B.’s deep crew of talented
wideouts. Meanwhile, Packers—although playoff hopes tiny—showing enough
young depth at CB that they were thinking of moving Charles Woodson to
safety, where his good tackling and nose for the ball might allow him to make
more impact plays for fading defense. Lacking quality wideouts and a healthy
OL, Jacksonville QB Garrard getting hounded (36 sacks) while scrambling to
find receivers.
(04-Jacksonville +3' 28-25...SR: Green Bay 2-1)


ARIZONA 31 - Minnesota 17—Cardinals have clinched their first
divisional crown in 33 years. But expect no let-up, as second-year HC Ken
Whisenhunt has done an excellent job fostering team chemistry despite
management’s contract squabbles with players, the Leinart-Warner QB
question, and the benching of veteran RB Edgerrin James. If it’s Tarvaris
Jackson at QB for Gus Frerotte (check status), he’ll have loads of problems
dealing with Arizona S Adrian Wilson. Cards’ only home loss TY was vs. the
mighty Giants. Arizona 7-1 “over” last 8 home. (06-MINNESOTA -6' 31-
26...SR: Minnesota 11-9)

MONDAY, DECEMBER 15
UNDER THE TOTAL *PHILADELPHIA 24 - Cleveland 6—Doubledigit
favorites weren’t doing so well in the NFL TY until a good showing last
week. So, with Philly arguably playing some of its best ball of 2008 the last two
weeks, and with Cleveland down to its third-team QB and producing 6, 6 & 9
points the last three games, prefer to lay the lumber. Eagles desperate for
every win, and Ken Dorsey lacks mobility vs. Philly’s rotating DLmen. Philly
has five DD wins TY, while the prognosis is not good for Romeo Crennel’s
continuation as Browns’ HC. Cleveland 8-1 “under” away; Birds 6-2 “under”
last 8 at Linc. CABLE TV—ESPN (04-Philadelphia -7 34-31 (OT)...SR:
Cleveland 31-14-1)



THURSDAY, DECEMBER 11
*CHICAGO 27 - New Orleans 20—Soldier Field has been a minefield the
L2Ys for N.O., which has lost both visits (including numbing 39-14 NFC title
game in ‘06). Possible wintry conditions a lot different for Drew Brees, who has
19 TDs vs. 4 ints. at the Superdome, and 7 TDs vs. 10 ints. away. Depleted
Saints defense might lose DE Will Smith to suspension (check status); the
offense, Deuce McAllister. Advantage Chicago if Bears can establish solid RB
Matt Forte (1081 YR; product of Tulane), opening play-action opportunities for
Kyle Orton. TV—NFL NETWORK
(07-CHI. 33-N. Orl. 25...N.28-13 N.20/105 C.27/96 N.35/60/2/308 C.13/28/1/179 C.2 N.1)
(07-CHICAGO +1 33-25...SR: Chicago 14-11

INDIANAPOLIS 33 - Detroit 10—The winless ‘76 Tampa Bay Bucs getting
increasingly nervous, as Detroit’s narrow miss last week vs. Minnesota might
have been the Lions’ best chance to avoid an 0-16 mark and keep the
expansion 0-14 Bucs in the record book. Somewhat surprisingly, Detroit has
covered its last 4 on the road. But there’s little chance the Lions will catch hot,
in-sync, playoff-minded Indy (6 straight wins) overlooking them. The Colts
appear to be themselves again, especially with the defense not allowing a TD
the last two weeks and Peyton Manning in tune again with Marvin Harrison (67-
yard TDC last week vs. Cincy).
(04-Indianapolis -9 41-9...SR: Indianapolis 19-18-2)

Washington 21 - CINCINNATI 10—Only a 21-19 victory over Jacksonville
Nov. 2 and an ugly tie 2 weeks later vs. Philly are keeping the Bengals from riding
the same train to infamy being driven in 2008 by the Detroit Lions. Ryan Fitzpatrick
(59%, 6 TDs, 9 ints.), while he hasn’t exactly self-destructed, is only 2-7 vs. the
spread TY. Although the Redskins (1-7 vs. spread last 8 overall) still looking for
more impact plays on defense, they run better and defend so much better than
Cincy (only 13 sacks TY) that it’s tough to recommend mistake-prone host.
(04-Cincinnati +3' 17-10...SR: Washington 4-3)

ATLANTA 23 - Tampa Bay 13—Much-improved Atlanta has guarded its
home turf well TY, winning & covering 5 times and stumbling only 24-20 vs.
Denver. Moreover, quick-study rookie QB Matt Ryan (14 TDs, 7 ints.) now
much better prepared to face T.B.’s sophisticated zone defenses than he was
in first meeting way back in Week Two. With Ryan’s help, Falcons’ WR quartet
of Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, Harry Douglas & Brian Finneran a formidable
NFL group. Relentless DE John Abraham has 12½ sacks.
(08-T. BAY 24-Atl. 9...T.15-14 T.28/164 A.28/105 T.18/31/0/147 A.13/33/2/129 T.1 A.0)
(07-T. Bay 31-ATL. 7...15-15 T.31/149 A.19/49 A.31/48/2/226 T.11/21/0/156 T.2 A.2)
(07-T. BAY 37-Atl. 3...T.21-5 T.48/190 A.20/106 T.15/25/1/95 A.4/15/2/27 T.0 A.2)
(08-T. BAY -7 24-9; 07-T. Bay -3 31-7, T. BAY -12' 37-3...SR: Tampa Bay 18-12


MIAMI 20 - San Francisco 19—Miami, now sharing first place (!) in the AFC
East, has done many things well during its turnaround campaign, including
valuing the ball and committing the fewest TOs (10) through the first 3/4 of the
season. However, the reborn Dolphins have not dominated at home, going only
2-5 vs. the spread. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ Mike Singletary has turned out to be
S.F.’s version of Miami’s Tony Sparano, with the Niners going 3-2 SU and 4-1
vs. the spread since Singletary’s debut game, after which the former Bears’
MLB shouted, “We want winners!” (04-Miami +1 24-17...SR: EVEN 5-5)

Seattle 23 - ST. LOUIS 16—When Seattle clubbed the Rams 37-13 in Week
Three, little did the Seahawks know 2008 was going to be a nightmare season
for both these teams, especially in the walkaway campaign for respected HC
Mike Holmgren. Last week, Seattle placed two of its three best OLmen (C Chris
Spencer & LG Mike Wahle) on IR, and Matt Hasselbeck (back) missed another
game. Still, the Seahawks’ effort behind Seneca Wallace (3 TDP vs. N.E.) was
much more inspiring that the continuing string of turnovers, drops, sacks, and
blown scoring chances by the Rams.
(08-SEA. 37-St. Lou. 13...Se.24-14 Se.46/245 St.24/65 St.17/30/1/167 Se.12/20/0/162 Se.1 St.1)
(07-SEA. 33-St. Lou. 6...Se.19-15 Se.32/100 St.17/53 Se.18/35/1/189 St.21/40/3/168 Se.0 St.2)
(07-Sea. 24-ST. LOU. 19...Se.18-17 St.31/104 Se.19/87 Se.21/38/1/215 St.23/37/2/161 Se.1 St.0)
(08-SEATTLE -9 37-13; 07-SEATTLE -8 33-6, Seattle -3 24-19...SR: Seattle 11-10)


NY JETS 24 - Buffalo 13—Both teams have lost two straight. But the Jets—
with Brett Favre at the controls, Thomas Jones (1088 YR) & Leon Washington
(326 YR) doing the running, and NT Kris Jenkins disrupting things up front—
appear to have a better 2008 future than the banged-up Bills. Buffalo has
notched only 22 sacks & 7 ints. in 13 games. Not good vs. a well-focused Favre.
Bills in the midst of a 1-6 pointspread freefall. Despite recent downturn, N.Y.
still controls its own fate to win the AFC East.
(08-NY Jets 26-BUF. 17...B.18-16 N.25/96 B.17/30 B.24/35/2/262 N.19/28/1/201 N.0 B.1)
(07-BUF. 17-NY Jets 14...N.20-19 B.28/86 N.19/60 N.32/39/2/286 B.22/28/1/218 B.1 N.0)
(07-Buf. 13-NY JETS 3...B.19-14 B.35/108 N.23/100 B.17/26/1/239 N.18/32/2/154 B.0 N.1)
(08-NY Jets +5' 26-17; 07-BUFFALO +3' 17-14, Buffalo +3 13-3...SR: Buffalo 53-43)

HOUSTON 26 - Tennessee 23—Tennessee is certainly entitled to a
mulligan, as the near-flawless Titans (6-0 vs. the spread away!) has already
clinched the AFC South and has a magic number of one to lock up the AFC
home field throughout the playoffs. But Jeff Fisher’s crew was sloppy last week
vs. Cleveland, when Tennessee got away with 3 giveaways & 13 penalties and
still handily beat the QB-shy Browns. If the Titans not super-sharp this week,
they might not escape improving Houston, which welcomed back QB Schaub
(414 YP!) last week at Green Bay. Note last five “over” in series.
(08-TENN. 31-Hou. 12...T.19-18 T.36/154 H.28/146 T.14/26/1/189 H.17/37/3/171 T.1 H.0)
(07-Tenn. 38-HOU. 36...T.23-18 T.39/155 H.12/39 H.27/44/3/294 T.25/42/0/267 T.2 H.3)
(07-TENN. 28-Hou. 20...T.23-17 T.29/153 H.25/119 T.21/31/1/229 H.20/35/1/196 T.0 H.1)
(08-TENN. -5 31-12; 07-Tenn. -1 38-36, TENN. -3' 28-20...SR: Tennessee 11-2)


BALTIMORE 19 - Pittsburgh 10—Through the first 12 games of the season,
the mighty Steel defense led the NFL in yards, points, rush yards, pass yards,
sacks, and combined ints. + sacks. But the Baltimore defense is not far behind.
And precocious Raven rookie QB Joe Flacco (2410 YP, 13 TDs, 10 ints.)
showed in first meeting he’s not intimidated by Pittsburgh, leading a late 76-
yard drive to force OT. Baltimore RB trio of Le’Ron McClain, Willis McGahee &
Ray Rice has pounded for 1581 YR, while Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger
merely getting pounded.
(08-PITT 23-Balt. 20 (OT)...B.16-11 B.33/103 P.28/69 P.14/24/1/168 B.16/31/0/140 P.0 B.1)
(07-PITT 38-Balt. 7...P.14-5 P.39/90 B.14/64 P.14/21/1/201 B.16/31/1/40 P.0 B.3)
(07-BALT. 27-Pitt 21...B.21-14 B.40/180 P.19/46 P.16/31/2/218 B.16/27/0/154 B.1 P.1)
(08-PITT -5 23-20 (OT); 07-PITT -9 38-7, BALT. +3 27-21...SR: Pittsburgh 16-10)

CAROLINA 23 - Denver 21—Bad matchup for both defenses? Carolina RBs
DeAngelo Williams (4.9 ypc) & Jonathan Stewart (4.6 ypc) had rushed for a
combined 1539 yards prior to their Monday night affair with Tampa Bay. Now
they face the Broncos’ 28th-ranked rush defense. However, Denver’s quick,
vastly-underrated OL has allowed only 8 sacks all year! The Broncs, with the
talented Jay Cutler learning steadily, have won their last three road games. And
the underdog is 10-1 in the Broncs’ last 11 contests overall!
(04-DENVER -5 20-17...SR: Denver 2-0)

San Diego 24 - KANSAS CITY 16—Chargers trying to keep their very slim
playoff chances alive, with their fans grumbling aloud about the team’s dearth
of Pro Bowl-level performances by their favorites following LY’s appearance in
the AFC title game. But one key exception has been QB Philip Rivers (64%, 26
TDs, 10 ints.), who should have fun with K.C.’s weak defense (only six sacks
TY), which is currently on track to posting one of lowest (if not the lowest) sack
totals in NFL history.
(08-S. DIEGO 20-K. City 19...S.23-19 S.26/92 K.18/76 S.27/36/2/308 K.27/41/0/263 S.0 K.0)
(07-K. City 30-S. DIEGO 16...S.19-17 S.24/133 K.28/126 K.17/29/2/264 S.21/42/2/200 K.0 S.2)
(07-S. Diego 24-K. CITY 10...K.18-12 S.32/191 K.25/88 K.21/40/3/180 S.10/21/1/139 S.0 K.1)
(08-S. DIEGO -15 20-19; 07-K. City +12 30-16, S. Diego -6 24-10...SR: Kansas City 50-46-1

New England 24 - OAKLAND 12—NFL’s best HC vs. its worst? Best
organization vs. the worst? Too bad the oddsmakers can equalize matters so
easily with the stroke of a pencil. And that the injury gods can strike down key
players (such as Tom Brady and several top Patriot defenders). But Oakland’s
receivers not great, its QBs are still learning, and rookie RB Darren McFadden
still battling turf toe. Will side with offensively-potent Pats, and count on a
couple Raider mistakes. (05-N. ENG. -7' 30-20...SR: EVEN 15-15-1)

*N.Y. Giants 23 - DALLAS 20—Cowboys conquered three beatable foes
(Redskins, 49ers, Seahawks) in Tony Romo’s first three games back from his
little finger injury. And they had the Steelers on the ropes last week, with
Tashard Choice (166 yds. rushing & receiving) subbing well for Marion Barber
III. But some sloppiness and miscommunication did them in. Will those poor
habits continue vs. the NFC East champion Giants, who have covered 13 of
their last 14 on the road? Check status of N.Y. power back Brandon Jacobs
(knee). TV—NBC
(08-GIANTS 35-Dal. 14...N.23-11 N.34/200 D.24/81 N.16/27/1/119 D.14/27/3/102 N.2 D.1)
(07-DAL. 45-Giants 35...N.22-21 D.30/142 N.22/124 D.15/24/1/336 N.29/44/1/314 D.1 N.0)
(07-Dal. 31-GIANTS 20...N.23-19 N.27/106 D.24/82 D.20/28/1/241 N.23/34/2/194 D.0 N.0)
(07-Giants 21-DAL. 17...D.23-16 D.33/154 N.23/90 D.18/36/1/182 N.12/18/0/140 N.0 D.0)
(08-GIA -8' 35-14; 07-DAL. -6 45-35, Dal. -2 31-20, Giants +7' 21-17 (Playoffs)...SR: Dal. 54-37-

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET
NBA FORECAST

NBA KEY RELEASES
ORLANDO by 7 over Phoenix (Fri., December 12)
DENVER by 21 over Golden State (Sat., Dec. 13)

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 12
Atlanta 100 - MIAMI 97—After enduring a rough patch of results (no covers
in 7 straight from Nov. 14-25) that loosely coincided with absence of explosive
Josh Smith, Atlanta appeared to right its ship at the end of the month. And even
with that mid-November slump, Hawks providing pretty good value if getting
points on road (7-2 in role thru Dec. 8). But they’ll have to keep tabs on Dwyane
Wade, whose early-season form as good as ever (29.8 ppg in November ties for
second-best month of his career!) 07-Atl +8 82-79 (188), ATL -1' 114-111 (OT-
187), AT -8' 97-94 (200), MIA +5 113-99 (187)
CLEVELAND 106 - Philadelphia 84—Philly hung tough in its three games
vs. Cleveland LY, winning once at The “Q” and covering all battles. LeBron &
Co., however, have begun this season like they mean business, covering 8 of
first 10 as home chalk thru Dec. 8. Teams also met Wednesday night at
Wachovia Center. 08-Check 12/10 result; 07-Phi +7' 92-86 (191), CLE -4' 91-
88 (192), Cle +4' 91-90 (187)
NEW JERSEY 109 - Toronto 102—Frisky New Jersey one of the real
revelations of early-season action, as Lawrence Frank making good use of young
bench to energize squad. Included in this renaissance was wild 129-127 win at Air
Canada Centre Nov. 21 when Vince Carter (scored 39) and Devin Harris (added 30)
paced Nets. 08-Nj +8' 129-127 (OT-196); 07-Tor +3 106-69 (192), TOR -10 109-
91 (191), NJ +5 99-90 (202), TOR -10' 113-85 (202)
Chicago 97 - MEMPHIS 86—Memphis in revenge mode (as it often is these
days) after 10-point loss at United Center Nov. 1. But Grizzlies are going to
have to do a better job slowing Bull rookie G sensation Derrick Rose than in first
meeting when the former Memphis Tiger scored 26. Cold Memphis was on 7-
game SU and spread losing streak prior to win over sad-sack Clippers Dec. 5.
08-CHI -8' 96-86 (192); 07-MEM -1' 104-90 (204), CHI -11' 112-97 (208)
San Antonio 97 - MINNESOTA 89—After not having much trouble when
sweeping (SU and vs. line) Minnesota in four meetings last season, S.A. was
pushed into double-OT before finally doing away with T-wolves at Target Center
Nov. 5. But Spurs might want to give Tony Parker a bit more help in return match
after they needed almost every one of Eva’s hubby’s career-best 55 points to avert
upset. 08-San -4' 129-125 (2OT-182); 07-San -10 106-91 (192), SAN -15' 105-88
(188), San -8 100-99 (179), SAN -12 99-84 (186)
BOSTON 100 - New Orleans 87—Note that home court edge meant
something when these two tussled last season, when Boston avenged 7-point
loss in New Orleans with 20-point cruise at Fleet Center. Champs picking up
where they left off last season, having won 11 in a row SU thru Dec. 6. Note
Hornets on 8-3-3 “under” run thru Dec. 9. 07-NO -1' 113-106 (190), BOS -7'
112-92 (197) CABLE TV—ESPN
DETROIT 90 - Indiana 85—Indiana (which already owns wins over last
season’s finalists, Celtics & Lakers) surprisingly playing its best against the
best this season. And Pacers put up a pretty good fight the last time they faced
rugged Detroit, covering as 10-point dog in competitive 100-94 loss at The
Palace opening night. Danny Granger proved a real thorn in Pistons’ side that
night when scoring 33 in a game that was played before A.I.’s trade to Auburn
Hills. “Totals” alert—Detroit on 8-1 “under” run thru Dec. 6. 08-DET -10 100-
94 (188); 07-DET -9' 114-101 (198), Det -4' 98-92 (199), Det -7' 110-104 (194),
DET -10 96-80 (198)
Orlando 103 - PHOENIX 96—It’s the middle of an extended 5-game
western road swing for Orlando, but note that Magic was recently on 6-game SU
win streak as visitor before running into hot Boston at Fleet Center Dec. 1.
Phoenix scuffling a bit lately (3-11 vs. line last 14 thru Dec. 8) with Shaq and
Steve Nash in and out of lineup, but their expected return to action ought to
bolster Suns’ hopes. Note that Phoenix won both meetings vs. Magic LY,
although Suns couldn’t quite cover as 5½-point chalk in America West Arena
clash. 07-Pho -1 106-96 (209), PHO -5' 110-106 (215)
PORTLAND 94 - LA Clippers 80—One of the strongest early-season “totals”
trends has been Portland’s recent string of “unders” (8 straight thru Dec. 6).
And ascending Blazers were on 6-game SU win streak thru Dec. 4 before
honorable loss at champion Celtics. Clips have been showing some signs of
improvement since acquiring frontliner Zach Randolph via trade in late
November. Randolph was scoring at a 25.3 ppg clip his first three as a Clipper,
although the absence of injured C Chris Kaman has forced Randolph and
Marcus Camby to log heavier minutes in post than HC Mike Dunleavy would
like. 07-Port +2 82-80 (183), PORT -12 107-102 (192), Port -7' 83-72 (189)
LA LAKERS 119 - Sacramento 103—Hot Lakers on many streaks early in
the season, including recent “over” skein (6-1 “over” last 7 thru Dec. 5). That
“over” run began with 118-108 shootout win over Sacto at Staples Center Nov.
23. L.A. couldn’t quite shake 16½-point dog Kings that night despite Sacto
being minus injured high scorer Kevin Martin, with Kings hitting 54% from floor.
Teams also met three nights ago at Arco Arena. 08-LA -16' 118-108 (209),
check 12/9 result; 07-La -5' 117-105 (222), Sac +13 114-113 (222), La -9' 114-
92 (222), LA -17' 124-101 (217)
Houston 118 - GOLDEN ST. 106—Don Nelson’s frustrations boiled over in
Golden State’s 131-112 loss at Houston Dec. 5, as enraged Nellie was tossed from
proceedings. That’s understandable, considering Warriors’ recent meltdown (G.S.
had lost 9 in a row SU thru Dec. 7). Nellie’s bunch was actually hanging into the 4th
Q of that battle at Toyota Center, but then watched Rockets close game on 30-11
run to win comfortably. Yao Ming’s presence obviously a further concern for G.S.
after he scored 33 in that Houston win. Note Rocketmen “over” 7-1 last 8 thru Dec.
7. 08-HOU -8' 131-112 (210); 07-GS +2 113-94 (208), Gs +3' 112-95 (201), HOU
-3' 111-107 (205), Hou +4 109-106 (208) TV—ESPN
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 13
Cleveland 103 - ATLANTA 92—Atlanta certainly not looking for re-run of first
meeting at the “Q ,”when Hawks were left standing at the starting gate after
scoring just 11 in 1st Q and 30 in 1st half of eventual 110-96 defeat. LeBron
(scored 24) hardly had to play in 4th Q that night. Return of Josh Smith to lineup
could help Atlanta cause, but keep in mind that surging Cavs have won and
covered last 8 thru Dec. 8 and are 5-0 as road chalk thru Dec. 9. 08-CLE -11'
110-96 (197); 07-CLE -5 98-94 (185), ATL -2' 90-81 (188), Cle +4 100-95 (187)
Detroit 100 - CHARLOTTE 99—Let’s see if Charlotte fares a bit better in
rematch than it did when getting popped by 18 at Auburn Hills back on Nov. 3.
Pistons hit 50% from floor that night and dominated backboards by 49-35 count.
Bobcats, however, beginning to show signs of absorbing Larry Brown’s style,
driving to the basket and posting up more often while shooting outside jumpers
a bit less. Recent benefactor has been Emeka Okafor, whose numbers have
increased as he becomes more involved in offense. 08-Det -3' 101-83 (180);
07-DET -11' 104-85 (192), Det -10 103-100 (OT-187), DET -11' 113-87 (189)
PHILADELPHIA 101 - Washington 92—We’re not likely to see much
improvement from Washington until Gilbert Arenas returns to lineup around New
Year’s. In his absence, Wizard backcourt has struggled, so much so that HC Eddie
Jordan was (fairly or unfairly) relieved of duties in late November. But replacement
Ed Tapscott not faring much better, as DeShawn Stevenson (33% FGs) and Dee
Brown (36% from floor) continue to launch brick after brick from floor. 07-WA -6'
116-101 (184), PHI -2 85-84 (196), PHI +1' 101-96 (190), WA -2 109-93 (194)
New Jersey 107 - CHICAGO 103—New Jersey continuing to prove a pleasant
surprise, covering 9 of last 12 thru Dec. 9. Moreover, frisky Nets unexpectedly
flourishing on the road, winning 7 of first 10 SU away. Good balance (all starters
scored DDs in Dec. 5 romp past T-wolves) and deep bench allowing HC Frank to
substitute in waves as he extracts maximum effort from troops. Which means New
Jersey should have no trouble accommodating Chicago’s uptempo preference.
07-NJ -2 112-103 (OT-187), NJ +3' 110-102 (OT-189), CHI -6' 112-96 (200)
MILWAUKEE 101 - Indiana 93—Milwaukee seeking to turn around recent
series fortunes after losing last 3 vs. Central rival Indiana last season. Bucks
not faring badly in early going as Bradley Center chalk, covering 5 of first 6 in
role, as team has begun to embrace HC Scott Skiles’ emphasis on defensive
end. Note Indiana no wins or covers last 3 on road thru Dec. 9. 07-MIL -5 104-
92 (209), IND -6 128-106 (216), Ind -1 105-101 (221), IND -9' 105-97 (217)
DALLAS 104 - Oklahoma City 94—Although Ok City’s losing ways recently cost
HC P.J. Carlesimo his job, Thunder has been more competitive past few weeks,
dropping just 1 of last 8 spread decisions thru Dec. 7. That’s perhaps due to new
HC Scott Brooks “going small” with lineup, with Kevin Durant and Jeff Green each
moved “up” to SF & PF, respectively, rookie Russell Westbrook now at PG, with
Damien Wilkins & Chris Wilcox completing new-look starting quintet that’s helping
Ok City improve scoring by 10 ppg since lineup revamp. 07-Dal -9 90-70 (195),
DAL -15 111-96 (203), DAL -18 99-83 (204), OKLA +10' 99-95 (200)
UTAH 102 - Orlando 94—Utah’s fortunes figure to improve with frontliner SPORTSBETTING.COM
Matt Harpring (scored 14 in first extended action of season Dec. 5 vs. Toronto)
contributing again after ankle and back problems, star G Deron Williams
rounding into form after nagging ankle and hip flexor ailments, and F Carlos
Boozer due back soon from quad injury. In meantime, 3rd-year F Paul Millsap
really beginning to assert himself, and Ohio State rookie 7-footer Kosta Koufos
making worthwhile contributions on offensive end. Meanwhile, Orlando rookie G
Courtney Lee (WKU), suddenly becoming a factor on attack. 07-Utah +4 113-94
(208), UTAH -7 119-115 (212)
DENVER 122 - Golden St. 101—It’s payback time for Denver after
getting spanked by 10 at Oakland Nov. 5. Remember, however, that was right
after the big A.I. for Chauncey Billups trade, and Nuggets were minus both for
that game (Iverson traded, but Billups had yet to arrive for that early-season
meeting). Nuggets are 13-4 SU (thru Dec. 9) since the Billups trade, while
Warriors on debilitating 9-game SU losing streak thru Dec. 7. “Totals” alert —
Warriors “over” 12-4 last 16 thru Dec. 7. 08-GS -3 111-101 (207); 07-Den +4' 124-
120 (228), Gs +4 105-95 (228), DEN -7' 119-112 (240), Den +4' 114-105 (237)
SACRAMENTO 104 - New York 100—Situation might be reaching critical
stage for Sacto HC Reggie Theus, on the hot seat as Kings’ SU losing streak
grew to 8 thru Dec. 8. Perhaps recent return of high-scoring G Kevin Martin and
workmanlike F Francisco Garcia to Sacto lineup will help forge turnaround...but
maybe not. Yet we’re not sure N.Y. (only 3-6 vs. line away thru Dec. 8) a much
better alternative, with Stephon Marbury still a potential distraction and Mike
D’Antoni’s roster and lineup combos continuing to evolve. 07-SAC -3 123-118
(2OT-199), Sac +3' 107-97 (191)
Houston 98 - LA CLIPPERS 88—Houston has already beaten L.A. twice,
although Rockets couldn’t quite cover 11½-point spread in 103-96 win at Toyota
Center Dec. 3. Rockets won that recent meeting minus Tracy McGrady, who
might still be on sidelines for this matchup. McGrady or not, note that Houston
scoring more in recent weeks (91.5 ppg first 10 games, 101.7 next 10 thru Dec.
7). And note that Rockets had won and covered 4 straight vs. Clips prior to
most-recent meeting. 08-Hou -6 92-83 (181), ADD 12/3 RESULT; 07-Hou -6
88-71 (188), Hou -9 105-79 (183), HOU -14 93-75 (185)
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 14 Day Games
New Orleans 103 - TORONTO 98—Interesting results last season when the
road team won both meetings. It’s also interesting how poorly Toronto is faring
vs. number at Air Canada Centre, dropping 7 of first 8 vs. line as host thru Dec.
6, a reflection of the problems that caused HC Sam Mitchell’s recent dismissal.
But don’t look for replacement Jay Triano to work any quick miracles, as
Raptors still struggling to implement new offensive and defensive systems that
have contributed to slow start. 07-Tor +6 97-92 (184), No -2' 118-111 (198)
Miami 100 - MEMPHIS 93—If Miami needs any reminders about how much
it regressed last season, a quick look at results vs. Memphis (when Heat lost
both meetings) should prove sobering. Miami not ready to contend for title yet,
but it is a new season, Dwyane Wade is healthy again, and Heat fared well on
recent extended western road trip when winning 3 of 5 SU. Grizzlies only 1-8 vs.
line last 9 thru Dec. 6. 07-MEM -6 101-94 (198), Mem -4' 96-91 (191)
Night Games
SAN ANTONIO 102 - Oklahoma City 86—Better things could be on tap for
S.A. now that Manu Ginobili has returned to lineup to team with Tony Parker &
Tim Duncan for first time this season. In their absence, reserves such as Roger
Mason, Matt Bonner, and George Hill earned valuable minutes, which will only
help Spurs’ depth. Note how S.A. romped by 21 past Ok City at AT&T Center
when Thunder was based in Seattle last season. 07-San -9' 116-101 (199),
OKLA +7 88-85 (192), SAN -16 95-74 (182)
LA LAKERS 113 - Minnesota 92—Lake Show didn’t even draw a deep
breath when facing Minnesota last season, winning and covering handily in all
3 meetings (closest margin 14 points). And though Lakers having a tougher
time in recent weeks clearing substantial imposts (L.A. only 3-4 last 7 as
Staples Center chalk thru Dec. 6), T-wolves not inspiring much confidence with
their recent efforts (no covers their last 7 thru Dec. 8.), as internal grumblings
an indicator that HC Randy Wittman’s job could be in trouble. 07-LA -10' 107-
93 (201), La -7' 116-95 (204), La -9' 117-92 (203)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 15
New Jersey 103 - TORONTO 100—Toronto just 1-7 vs. line at Air Canada
Centre prior to yesterday, and Raptors have dropped last 7 vs. line overall
through Dec. 6. Teams also met Friday night at Meadowlands. 08-Nj +8' 129-
127 (OT-196), check 12/12 result; 07-Tor +3 106-69 (192), TOR -10 109-91
(191), NJ +5 99-90 (202), TOR -10' 113-85 (202)
WASHINGTON 101 - Indiana 98—Home court meant something when these
teams tussled last season, when host won and covered all four meetings. And
Washington showing signs of improvement under new HC Ed Tapscott, with
respectable covers in last two home efforts vs. Blazers & Lakers. But do we
have faith in Wizards to keep series trend alive, especially minus Gilbert
Arenas? Just in case Wizards laying points, note 0-4 spread mark as Verizon
Center chalk. 07-IND +2 119-110 (OT-203), WASH -6 103-90 (201), IND -6' 93-
85 (207), WASH -4 117-110 (206)
ATLANTA 99 - Charlotte 88—Home team has won last five meetings,
although Atlanta couldn’t quite cover 8-point spread when Charlotte visited
Philips Arena November 21. Hawks needed almost all of Joe Johnson’s 30
points to prevail on a night in which Josh Smith missed action due to injury.
Streaky Charlotte has followed recent 5-game cover streak with 3 straight
pointspread Ls thru Dec. 7. 8-ATL -8 88-83 (188); 07-ATL -5' 117-109 (188),
ATL -6 93-84 (185), CHA -1 100-98 (OT-193), CHA +1 108-93 (204)
MIAMI 98 - Milwaukee 97—One of the pointspread stories of the early
season has been Milwaukee’s prowess as a road dog, with Bucks covering 9 of
first 12 getting points away thru Dec. 6. Recent return of Michael Redd from
injury should further boost Milwaukee, also benefiting from improved bench
work courtesy Charlie Villanueva, Ramon Sessions, and Dan Gadzuric.
Meanwhile, undersized Miami (no one in regular rotation taller than 6-9)
nonetheless getting some great interior defense from C Joel Anthony, blocking
shots at an incredible clip in recent outings. 07-Mil +2' 103-98 (195), MIL -4 98-
92 (189), Mia +9' 112-106 (203), MIA +9 78-73 (199)
BOSTON 109 - Utah 96—Early-season showdown might lack extra
dimension if star Jazz F Carlos Boozer hasn’t returned from injury. That might
prove too much for Utah to overcome vs. red-hot Boston bunch on 11-game SU
win streak thru Dec. 6. Keep in mind, however, that road team won both
meetings a year ago, including Jazz’ 110-92 win at Fleet Center. 07-Bos -5'
104-98 (193), Utah +7' 110-92 (204)
DALLAS 100 - Denver 94—After taking 2 of 3 from Dallas last season, Denver
picked up where it left off with 108-105 win at Pepsi Center Nov. 7. That was a
triumphant night for Nuggets, as local product Chauncey Billups made first
appearance since trade from Pistons, scoring 15. But new Dallas HC Rick Carlisle
pushing the right buttons with his myriad lineup combinations, the most intriguing
(and effective) of which is unique 3-G lineup featuring Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, and
J.J. Barea. Mavs on 7-3 spread run thru Dec. 8. 08-DEN -1 108-105 (206); 07-Den
+8 122-109 (215), DAL -11 90-85 (208), DEN -8' 118-105 (214)
PHOENIX 113 - New York 105—Lots of sidebar stories attached to this one,
none greater than New York HC Mike D’Antoni’s return to Phoenix after several
successful seasons with Suns. Unfortunately for D’Antoni, his new Knick
edition remains a work in progress, with unfortunate byproduct being Stephon
Marbury’s ongoing soap opera. Suns, however, not inspiring a lot of confidence
lately themselves, with 5 straight spread losses thru Dec. 8 and defense not
displaying the intensity new HC Terry Porter demands. 07-PHO -12' 113-102
(209), Pho -8' 115-104 (209)
SACRAMENTO 105 - Minnesota 96—Pick your poison! Teams have
already split a pair this season, with home team winning each, although
Minnesota failed to cover its 2-point opening-night win at Target Center. Both
struggling lately, but expect Sacto to have better chance of getting back on
track now that Kevin Martin & Francisco Garcia have returned to lineup. 08-MIN
-5' 98-96 (202), SAC -3' 121-109 (199); 07-SAC -4' 100-93 (194), MIN -2 108-
103 (191), Min +8 111-103 (202)
Orlando 117 - GOLDEN ST. 106—It’s hard to see Golden State emerging from
its recent tailspin that’s reached 9 losses in a row thru Dec. 7. At least until defense
(torched for 120 ppg during losing skein) begins to tighten, a development that not
even the return of G Monta Ellis (due back from suspension in a few weeks, but not
a great defender anyway) figures to change. Note Orlando on 6-1 spread run on
road thru Dec. 7. 07-Orl +3' 123-117 (OT-217), Gs +6 104-95 (230)
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 16
CHARLOTTE 92 - Chicago 91—Charlotte has recorded most of its victories at
home this season, as Larry Brown seems to get the Bobcats focused to win their
winnable games. However, Chicago has had 2 days off, while Charlotte played last
night in Atlanta. Find it difficult to lay points on the road with the Bulls, however,
even considering they have won and covered 4 of last 5 in the series. Totals note:
Bobcats are 6-2 “under” in their last 8 when unrested. 07-CHI -7 111-95 (182), Chi
+1 91-82 (186), Chi -1 109-97 (191), Cha +3 90-77 (190)
New Orleans 118 - MEMPHIS 103—New Orleans has dominated Memphis,
winning 11 of last 12 meetings SU, covering 8 of those. Hornets made 11 of 20
3-point attempts in Dec. 6 meeting, a 106-87 blowout, as the Grizzly defense
couldn’t step up against a good team once again. If Memphis can’t get stops,
the scoring from O.J. Mayo (21 ppg) and Rudy Gay (20 ppg) just isn’t enough.
Totals note: This series has gone “over” 10-0-1 last 11 meetings. 08-NO -14
106-87 (192'); 07-No -3' 120-118 (OT-203), NO -6' 118-116 (OT-203), No -2'
116-98 (201), NO -14 112-99 (203)
LA Clippers 98 - OKLAHOMA CITY 95—Two bottom-feeders that have
started to cover some games meet in this one. Favor Clippers, who’ve covered
5 of 6 since Zach Randolph began playing for Los Angeles. OKC has covered
7 of last 8 through Dec. 7, but the Thunder has won just 2 of first 21 straight-up,
and they won’t be getting many, if any, points here, and L.A. has taken 5 of last
7 SU (6-1 vs. points) against OKC/Seattle. 08-La -1 108-88 (189); 07-LA -6'
115-101 (210), OKLA -3' 95-88 (195), La +5 102-84 (205)
HOUSTON 103 - Denver 99—This has been a home-team oriented series,
with the host winning the last 5 SU. Houston has covered 3 of last 4 at the
Toyota Center facing the Nuggets, and 7 of last 10 overall in the series. Rested
Rockets catch Denver coming off a game in Dallas last night, although the
Nuggets have covered 5 of last 6 in the 2nd of back-to-back games. Tracy
McGrady, who scored 24 ppg against Denver last season, is taking time off to
rest his knee, while Nuggets have covered 4 of last 5 through Dec. 9, so proceed
with caution. 08-DEN -4 104-94 (193); 07-HOU -5' 109-81 (201), DEN -8 112-
111 (2OT-199), HOU -5 103-89 (207), DEN -6' 111-94 (211)
PORTLAND 108 - Sacramento 100—Have little interest in backing
Sacramento team that’s dropped 8 in a row SU and last 5 against the points
through Dec. 8. Kings are giving up 106 ppg and 48% FGs. Portland,
meanwhile, plays much better defense, allowing just 93 ppg, and leads the
league in fewest turnovers, thanks to adept ballhandling of guards Blake and
Roy. However, must note that Blazers covered just 1 of first 5 chances laying
7 points or more. 08-Port -4' 117-96 (198), PORT -11' 91-90 (205); 07-PORT -
5 87-84 (204), Sac +3' 105-94 (195), SAC -3' 96-85 (205), SAC -3 103-86 (202)
LA LAKERS 114 - New York 95—New York tends to lose touch against highquality
foes, sporting a 1-5 mark this season when getting 8 or more points. Only
Golden State allows more points than the Knicks, and the deep and potent Lakers
lead the league scoring 109 ppg. Lakers just 3-3 laying double digits at home
through Dec. 6, but this is the last game of the homestand for L.A., so expect a
positive effort against Knicks. Kobe scored 32 ppg & shot 49% against N.Y. last
season. 07-La -6' 95-90 (204), LA -9' 120-109 (207)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 17
Milwaukee 97 - PHILADELPHIA 96—Philly isn’t playing well at Wachovia
Center of late, as the Sixers have lost 4 in a row SU and vs. the points as a host
through Dec. 9. Milwaukee, conversely, has been a high percentage play on the
road, covering 9 of last 11 as a visitor. Recent return of Buck leading scorer
Michael Redd from extended injury absence a huge plus for Milwaukee, which
covered 15 of its first 21 games overall. Redd scored 19 ppg in his first 3 back in
action, and Milwaukee won the last 2 SU as he shot 50%. 07-Phi +6' 114-99 (187),
Mil +6 87-83 (188), PHI -8' 112-69 (186), Phi -2 119-97 (203)
Boston 103 - ATLANTA 92—Atlanta has been tough at Philips Arena,
winning 7 of first 8 SU this season. But beating Boston is a tall order, even for
improved Atlanta. Hawks are 8-1 vs. the number with Josh Smith in the lineup
through Dec. 8, but Celtics have kicked it into gear and covered 8 of last 10 and
were 19-2 SU in first 21 this season. Development of PG Rajon Rondo has
been significant in Boston’s early-season success, as he’s shot shot 53% and
handed out 8 apg thus far, sharply improving his production from last season.
Oh yes, and Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen can still play a little bit
too. First meeting was a little too close for comfort for Celtic coach Doc
Rivers...look for much wider margin this time around. 08-BOS -11 103-102 (184);
07-BOS -9 106-83 (192), BOS -11' 98-88 (198), Bos -2 99-89 (196), BOS -15 104-
81 (190), BOS -15' 96-77 (189), ATL +8 102-93 (187), ATL +9 97-92 (189), BOS -
14 110-85 (187), ATL +8' 103-100 (189), BOS -14' 99-65 (190) TV—ESPN
INDIANA 119 - Golden St. 109—Defenseless Golden State has dropped 6 of
last 7 spread decisions on the road through Dec. 7, and the Warriors have
yielded 131 ppg in last 4 through same date (Really Nellie, 131?). Indiana not
exactly air-tight on defensive end, yielding 101 ppg this season, but Pacers
should be able to out-score Warriors in uptempo game. Golden State 14-6
“over” first 20 this season; Pacers 6-2 “over” last 8 through Dec. 6. 07-GS -9'
106-101 (225), IND -2 125-117 (221)
Dallas 105 - TORONTO 94—Toronto has taken a nosedive since Sam
Mitchell was fired as coach, and the Raptors have now lost 7 straight spread
decisions through Dec. 6, with the last 3 SU losses by an average of 26 ppg.
This is a potentially disgruntled crew in Toronto, while Dallas is playing its best
ball of the season at this writing, as Mavs have won 9 of last 10 SU through Dec.
8. Mavs playing solid defense, holding foes to just 42.7% overall and a leaguelow
29.9% from 3-point territory. Note Raptors’ Jason Kapono leads the league
in 3-point FG shooting. 07-DAL -8' 105-99 (197), TOR +5 92-76 (195)
NEW JERSEY 103 - Utah 97—New Jersey has covered 9 of last 12 through
Dec. 9, as Nets are combining new additions Yi Jianlian (11 ppg, 6 rpg), rookie
Brook Lopez (10 ppg, 8 rpg), and reserve Keyon Dooling (career-highs 9.4 ppg,
3 apg) with success. Utah has held its own without services of PF Carlos
Boozer, as Paul Millsap has done an excellent job filling in (17 ppg, 11 rpg as a
starter). But facing Net team that’s pretty strong on the frontline this season,
Jazz won’t have required depth or muscle without Boozer. 08-Nj +8' 105-88
(209); 07-UTAH -10' 102-75 (191), NJ +5 117-115 (204)
DETROIT 102 - Washington 98—Not particularly interested in laying a lot of
points with Detroit side that’s 2-4 first 6 laying 8 or more. Washington was just 3-
15 SU prior to hosting the Pistons Dec. 9, but Wizards have covered 4 straight (all
as a dog of 6½ or more) at this writing. Washington’s Butler and Jamison capable
of keeping Wizards competitive. 08-DET -9' 117-109 (180), check 12/9 result; 07-
Det -5 106-93 (192), WASH +5 95-83 (187), DET -4' 102-74 (189)
Cleveland 101 - MINNESOTA 81—Cleveland isn’t just winning right now, the
Cavs are laying out foes with a combination of offense and defense that’s seen
them cover 11 of last 12. LeBron James is playing superbly on both ends of the
floor, and the Cavs have held their last 4 opponents to just 79 ppg (through Dec.
8). Cleveland doesn’t appear inclined to show mercy or look past lesser
opposition, either, as the Cavs have covered 6 straight laying double digits.
Meanwhile, Minnesota has lost last 7 spread decisions, including four straight
double-digit losses through Dec. 8. Randy Wittman is probably having trouble
sleeping at night. 07-Cle -4' 97-86 (192), CLE -9' 92-84 (190)
CHICAGO 95 - LA Clippers 94—L.A. has stabilized since the addition of Zach
Randolph, who’s averaged 21 ppg, 9 rpg and shot 53% as a Clipper. L.A. C Chris
Kaman should be returned from foot problems, adding more power up front for the
Clips. Bulls have plenty of backcourt punch, with Ben Gordon and Derrick Rose
combining for 39 ppg, but they’ll be relegated to taking outside shots if Marcus
Camby, Randolph and Kaman are congregating around the hoop. 07-La +8' 97-91
(194), Chi -3 92-73 (188)
NEW ORLEANS 94 - San Antonio 93—New Orleans played last night in
Memphis, and Hornets have dropped last 3 playing 2nd of back-to-back games.
San Antonio, meanwhile, seems to be putting pieces together, with Tony Parker
and Manu Ginobili both returned from injury. Spurs have covered 9 of last 12
through Dec. 8, with last 6 SU wins coming by double digits. Respect Hornets
and PG Chris Paul (22 ppg, 10 apg vs. S.A. LY), but can’t give Spurs any points.
07-San -3' 97-85 (187), No +5' 102-78 (183), SAN -6' 98-89 (183), NO -1 100-
75 (185), NO -3 101-82 (184), NO -3 102-84 (183), SAN -7 110-99 (183), SAN
-5' 100-80 (187), NO -4 101-79 (186), SAN -7 99-80 (184), San +4' 91-82 (183)
TV—ESPN
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 18
ORLANDO 103 - San Antonio 97—Orlando catches San Antonio coming off
last night’s game in New Orleans, and Magic owns one of the best records in the
league, winning 15 of first 20 this season. Spurs were 1-3 in 2nd of back-to-back
games prior to hosting Atlanta Dec. 10. Magic have compensated well for loss
of Mickael Pietrus (13 ppg; out with a torn thumb ligament), winning 3 of first 4
without him, as Courtney Lee and J.J. Redick have filled in adequately. Orlando
big man Dwight Howard averaged 29 points and 19 rebounds against the Spurs
last season, although S.A. took both games. 07-SAN -5' 128-110 (188), San +1'
107-97 (190) TV—TNT
PORTLAND 100 - Phoenix 94—Blazers 5-2 vs. number at home thru Dec. 9 &
Suns 3-11 vs. spread last 14 thru Dsame date. 08-PHO -8' 107-96 (193), PHO -5'
102-92 (198); 07-Pho -2 97-92 (208), Pho -3' 111-98 (210), PHO -11' 100-91 (210)
TV—TNT

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET
COLLEGE HOOPS
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 12
MIAMI-FLORIDA 82 - Florida Intl. 51—With FIU’s top two players 6-6 F Alex
Galindo and 7-0 C Russell Hicks probably still sidelined with injuries, must lay
the lumber with ascending, veteran Miami-Florida, led by pure-shooting G Jack
McClinton (16 ppg; 43% from arc). And with Hurricane HC Fran Haith praising
improved post play of 6-8 jr. F Dwayne Collins (12 pg, 9 rpg) and 6-8 sr. Jimmy
Graham (6 rpg), deeper Miami equipped to destroy shorthanded Panthers.
Happenin’ host has covered last 3 as DD chalk. 07-Mia -11' 67-53
Iowa St. 65 - IOWA 66—Youthful Iowa (start 3 true frosh!) has
displayed rapid maturity in early going for astute 2nd-year HC Todd Lickliter, but
still looking to take several hoops with 6-1 ISU (prior to Drake Dec. 9). ISU’s
productive 6-10 soph C Craig Brackins (16 ppg) poses matchup problems for Goriented
Hawkeyes, while emerging, sharp-shooting 6-5 soph Lucca Staiger
(native German scored 14 pts. vs. Ore. St.) and 6-4 soph G Diante Garrett (11 pg,
44% from arc) keep Iowa defense from sagging. 07-ISU -2' 56-47
ARKANSAS-L.R. 62 - Wright St. 45—Even in a best-case scenario, no one
would mistake Wright State’s firepower for Duke’s. But Raiders really on short
rations offensively at moment with star G Duggins out until New Year’s with
finger injury and backcourt mate T. Brown laboring at about 20% from floor, all
helping contribute to WSU’s sickly 0-6 break from gate. Situation much better
at UALR, as experienced Trojans confirming Sun Belt contender status with
quick start featuring unexpected contributions from 6-0 soph G Mouzy (teambest
14 ppg). 07-DNP
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 13 Day Games
Tennessee 72 - TEMPLE 62—Fran Dunphy mixing and matching expertly (as
usual) with Temple, as early injuries to frontliners Allen & Olmos have forced
Owls to go “small” much of first month. Now, Temple close to full strength, but
unfortunately must hook potent Tennessee bunch that’s still stinging from
recent Old Spice tourney loss to Gonzaga. Vols have plenty of size in 6-9 W.
Chism & 6-10 B. Williams to cause problems in paint, 6-7 Tyler Smith a matchup
nightmare, and heady juco G Maze lending much-needed stability to Bruce
Pearl’s helter-skelter style. 07-TENN -17 80-63 CABLE TV—ESPN
OHIO ST. 55 - Butler 53—Revenge is on OSU’s mind after losing by 19 vs.
more-experienced Butler at Hinkle Fieldhouse year ago. And Thad Matta
undoubtedly thrilled with progress of Buckeyes after recent wins over Miami-Fla.
& Notre Dame, with 6-7 soph Evan Turner (16.6 ppg) emerging as legit go-to
threat. But underestimate well-schooled Bulldogs at your own peril. Bulldogs
rebuilding on the fly, with frosh Gs Mack & Hayward displaying maturity beyond
years, swingman Veasley still a stopper supreme, and 6-7 soph F Howard
remaining a tricky matchup. 07-BUT -6 65-46
SYRACUSE over Long Beach St. by 14 to 17—07-DNP CABLE TV—ESPNU
DELAWARE over Ohio by 1 to 3—07-OHIO -13' 78-59
GEORGE WASHINGTON over Harvard by 11 to 14—07-DNP
Va. Commonwealth 68 - RICHMOND 61—Richmond looking to atone for 20-
point loss at crosstown rival VCU last season. And Spiders getting lots of
production in early going from Gs Gonzalvez (17.5 ppg) & Anderson (16.5 ppg).
But absence of multi-dimensional 6-9 Geriot (knee) robs HC Mooney of a unique
dimension (a big man who could pass and shoot) to help UR’s Princeton-like
offense. Meanwhile, emergence of soph G Rodriguez (scored 20 in recent win
over W&M) giving Rams necessary backcourt complement to A-A candidate
Eric Maynor (23.9 ppg, 53% from floor!), and VCU athleticism rates edge. 07-
VCU -14 65-45 CABLE TV—ESPNU
GEORGETOWN 73 - Memphis 66—With Memphis mentor John Calipari
switching to his 3rd PG in 6-8 true frosh Wesley Witherspoon, will endorse
geeked-up G’Town eager to atone for 14-pt. setback at hostile FedEx Forum LY.
Hoyas hellacious defense (led nation in FG % allowed LY; 36% TY) should
disrupt Tigers unsettled backcourt, while GT’s dynamic G duo of Sapp &
Summers make up for subpar 6 of 19 FG shooting in ‘07 meeting. Game
features two of the nation’s premier newcomers in Hoyas' 6-10 F Greg Monroe
and UM’s 6-6 G Tyreke Evans. 07-MEM -5 85-71 TV—CBS
KANSAS over Mass. by 20 to 23—(at Kansas City, MO) 07-DNP TV—ESPN
MIAMI-OHIO 71 - Valparaiso 50—One of Miami-O’s most-bitter defeats a
year ago was double-OT “Bracket Buster” loss at Valpo. But with Crusader HC
Homer Drew still looking to fill gaps caused by graduation of key offensive
components Huff & Lloyd, Valpo (only one starter, F Igbavboa, scoring DDs)
susceptible to payback beating as it continues to labor on attack end. Vet
RedHawks should be happy to oblige, with sr. weapons 6-5 Bramos (18.3 ppg)
& 6-2 Hayes (15.9 ppg) giving Charlie Coles’ bunch a chance to extend margin.
07-VAL +1 99-94 (2OT)
Florida St. over GEORGIA ST. by 6 to 8—07-FSU -20' 78-48
KENTUCKY over Indiana by 18 to 22—07-IND -7' 70-51 TV—CBS
OREGON over San Diego by 3 to 5—(at Portland, OR) 07-DNP
MICHIGAN over Eastern Michigan by 19 to 22—07-DNP
OKLAHOMA over Utah by 5 to 7—07-DNP CABLE TV—ESPN2
NEW MEXICO over Mississippi by 4 to 6—07-MISS -9 85-77
Saint Mary’s over San Diego St. by 3 to 5—(at Anaheim, CA) 07-Stm -3' 69-
64 (neut.) CABLE TV—WGN
Pacific over PEPPERDINE by 5 to 7—07-Pac -8' 84-76 (neut.), Pep +13' 83-65
WYOMING over Northern Iowa by 3 to 5—(at Casper, WY) 07-DNP
Night Games
West Virginia over DUQUESNE by 6 to 8—07-WVA -14 92-68
UCLA over DePaul by 14 to 17—DePaul’s chances significantly
compromised if key interior threat 6-10 C Koshwal still on shelf with foot injury
that kept him out of Blue Demons’ recent ugly loss (when team shot 24% from
floor) at Northwestern. (at Anaheim, CA) 07-DNP CABLE TV—WGN
PURDUE over Indiana St. by 23 to 27—07-PUR -13 71-60
EVANSVILLE over Western Kentucky by 1 to 2—07-DNP
MISSISSIPPI ST. over South Alabama by 8 to 11—07-USA -2 71-67
WISCONSIN over Wis.-Green Bay by 12 to 15—07-WIS -18' 70-52
ALABAMA over Texas A&M by 4 to 6—07-TAM -12 76-63
CINCINNATI over Xavier 1 to 2—07-XAV -19 64-59 CABLE TV—ESPN2
Nebraska over OREGON ST. by 12 to 15—07-DNP
BOISE ST. 69 - San Francisco 66—WCC sources have alerted us to keep
an eye on improved USF squad that has responded positively to new HC Rex
Walters in early going. Frosh G Vaughn & juco F Wallace have added to Don
firepower quotient that already included holdover F Lowhorn (21.2 ppg) and
long-range bomber G Quezada. Boise’s positive start due mostly to soft early
slate at friendly Taco Bell Arena, but Broncos still in adjustment phase following
graduation of key frontline cogs Larry & Nelson. 07-Bsu +3 91-81
UC STA BARBARA over Loyola Marymt by 11 to 14—07-Ucsb -10' 63-56
BYU 80 - Portland 61—Portland a pleasant surprise in early going, with
addition of quicksilver juco PG Campbell (5.6 apg) igniting Pilot attack. But not
sure UP can deal with bigger BYU, especially with 6-11 jr. Miles proving a more
than adequate replacement for graduated C Plaisted. 07-Byu -12 78-54
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 14
Day Games
GEORGIA TECH over Illinois-Chicago by 1 to 3—07-DNP
ARKANSAS-L.R. over Northern Illinois by 8 to 11—07-NIU +3' 59-55
NEW MEXICO ST. over Utep by 3 to 5—07-UTEP -6' 84-76, Utep +3' 79-78
WAKE FOREST over Wright St. by 24 to 28—07-DNP
Gonzaga 75 - ARIZONA 67—With Arizona program still in limbo post-Lute
(asst. Russ Pernell handling coaching duties on an interim basis), not sure
Wildcats up to task of challenging set of non-conference action in December.
Meanwhile, Gonzaga has already proven tis mettle vs. top-flight competition
(won Old Spice Tourney over Tennessee in Orlando), with re-emergence of 6-
11 C Heytvelt as force signaling that Zags belong with nation’s elite...something
we can’t say anymore about UA. (at Phoenix, AZ) 07-DNP
Night Games
BOWLING GREEN over Detroit by 4 to 6—07-Bgu +3' 81-65
NEVADA over Southern Illinois by 4 to 6—07-SIU -7' 74-49
UNLV over Western Michigan by 13 to 16—(at Orleans Arena) 07-DNP
Stanford over COLORADO ST. by 6 to 8—07-STAN -21 73-53
Villanova over LA SALLE by 5 to 7—07-VIL -17' 71-58 CABLE TV—ESPNU
MONDAY, DECEMBER 15
SYRACUSE over Cleveland St. by 7-10—07-DNP
KENT ST. over Youngstown St. by 17 to 20—07-Ksu -9' 59-52
LA.-LAFAYETTE over La.-Monroe by 8 to 11—07-Ull +7' 68-67, ULL -7' 67-65
UC Riverside over LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT by 1 to 2—07-UCR -5 86-74 (OT)
SOUTHERN CAL over Pepperdine by 20 to 24—07-DNP
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 16
VANDERBILT over South Florida by 1 to 2—(at Sommet Ctr.) 07-DNP
TV—ESPN2
DENVER over Florida Atlantic by 3 to 5—07-FAU -4' 70-68 (OT)
TENNESSEE over Marquette by 1 to 2—(at Sommet Ctr.) 07-DNP
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 17
Illinois St. over CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 1 to 2—07-DNP
DUQUESNE over Old Dominion by 2 to 4—07-DNP
NORTH CAROLINA ST. over East Carolina by 7 to 9—07-ECU +9' 75-69
MARSHALL over Ohio by 5 to 7—07-DNP
VA. COMMONWEALTH over Akron by 8 to 11—07-Vcu +2' 57-52
Georgia St. 65 - GEORGIA TECH 66—CAA sources have alerted us
to keep an eye on emerging Georgia State, which sent message in recent 22-
point thumping of UNCW. Panther HC Rod Barnes’ bevy of high-level transfers
is led by ex-Wake Forest G Joe Dukes (15.5 ppg), with frontliners Hansbro (with
Barnes at Ole Miss), Rimmer (ex-Miss. State), and juco Echols making their
presence felt as well. Remember, less-potent Panthers pushed crosstown rival
GT to limit year ago. 07-Tech -12' 72-67
Southern Illinois over NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 4 to 6—07-SIU -21' 88-68
MEMPHIS over Arkansas-L.R. by 19 to 22—07-DNP
TEXAS A&M over Smu by 17 to 20—07-DNP
RICE over Harvard by 5 to 7—07-DNP
UTEP over Texas Tech by 4 to 6—07-TECH -6 75-68
Saint Mary’s over OREGON by 2 to 4—07-STM +3 99-87
UNLV 68 - Santa Clara 63—After acquitting itself well vs. early-season
meatgrinder slate, capable SCU won’t finch at trip to Thomas & Mack Center.
Broncos’ bruising 6-10 sr. C Bryant (18.9 ppg & 12.9 rpg) will prove a handful for
smaller UNLV on blocks, while SCU HC Keating thrilled with early contributions
of frosh Gs Foster (10.1 ppg) & Rahon (9.8 ppg) as well as juco PG Petty. 07-DNP
UCLA over Loyola-Marymount by 20 to 24—07-DNP
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 18
CINCINNATI over Mississippi St. by 2 to 4—(at US Bank Arena) 07-DNP
TV—ESPN2
NORTH CAROLINA over Evansville by 25 to 29—07-DNP CABLE TV—
ESPN
TROY over Florida Atlantic by 2 to 4—07-FAU -3 93-88, Fau +3 99-93
ARKANSAS ST. over Florida Intl. by 14 to 17—07-ASU -5' 68-59
SOUTH ALABAMA over Western Kentucky by 3 to 5—07-USA -4 65-61, Usa
+6 69-64
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE over North Texas by 3 to 5—07-UNT -8' 72-65,
ULL -1' 63-58
LOUISVILLE over Mississippi by 13 to 16—(at Cincinnati, OH) 07-DNP
TV—ESPN
CS NORTHRIDGE over Pepperdine by 13 to 16—07-Csn +2' 97-89

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE MAX
NFL

NFL System from Dave Fobare,
Takeaway A Pointspread Win:
Play against any NFL favorite that won last week's game by at least 7 points despite recording a -2 or worse in the turnover/takeawaY category.
Pointspread Record Since 1983: 43-27 (61.4%)
This week’s application: Houston Texans (play against Tennessee Titans)


NFL System from Nelly’s Sportsline,
The Underachievement Continues: Play against any NFL road favorite of at least 7
points that won straight up on the road in its last game but has lost against the spread as favorites in each of the past two games.
Pointspread Record Since 1980: 16-8-1 (66.7%)
This week’s application: Oakland Raiders (play against New England Patriots)


NFL System from Marc Lawrence,
Too Much Home Cookin’:
Play Against any NFL regular season road favorite off three straight home games versus an opponent off a SU loss.
Pointspread Record since 1980: 27-11-1 (71%)
This week’s application: Kansas City (play against San Diego Chargers)

Sunday December 14h, 2008
@Bears (-3) over Saints
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Several weeks into the season I was forced (like a lot of
handicappers) to acknowledge that Kyle Orton was
establishing himself as a decent quarterback. Then Orton
injured his ankle in a 27-23 win over Detroit and he hasn't
been quite the same QB since. With the Bears' offense
averaging 6.0 yards per pass and giving up the same it
would seem a good place to take a Saints team that is
throwing for 8.0 yards per pass and giving up 6.8 and is
installed as an underdog despite scoring better than 28
points per game and scoring under 20 just once this
season. Let's delve a little deeper.
In place of Kyle Orton backup Rex Grossman has eaten up
62 pass attempts and moved the team just 4.2 yards per
throw. That drop from Orton's 6.7 yards per attempt
makes the Bears look worse than they really are. And
behind rookie RB Matt Forte the Bears have a substantial
edge in the running game, one that is worth about 3 points
per game all by itself. Oddly enough my stats also record a
higher schedule strength for the Bears. The Saints are 7-6,
yet they occupy the basement of the strong NFC South.
And as usual the NFC North is several games below the
0.500 mark. But Chicago has faced some tough teams
outside their division like Philadelphia and Tennessee,
while New Orleans has played 4 games against the weak
AFC West. Add it all up and my stat model prefers the
seemingly deficient Bears by about 5.5 points.
The best general tech I have on this game is a negative
84-138 ATS system that isolates certain high scoring teams
such as New Orleans likely to be public darlings. This
system is 5-12 in 2008 including plays against both the
Jets (lost 24-14 as -5) and Giants (lost 20-14 as -6) last
weekend. With the Saints at 9-4 ATS and coming off 4
covers in a row it’s likely we'll be bucking the public here.
And the Saints apply to a negative 77-135 ATS system that
plays against winning teams with good spread records.
This spot is already 5-10 on the season.
Here at the end of the writeup I'm supposed to have
something pithy to say, but this week I just don't have it.
The Saints just look like a typically overvalued high scoring
team, and I'll take the still somewhat gimpy Kyle Orton and
the Bears. Chicago by 10.


@Falcons (-3) over Bucs
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
The Falcons are an eminently likeable team, and are
generating a lot of enthusiasm in Atlanta. After two
consecutive weeks on the road, they will be welcomed
back with open arms, and that crowd support has worked
it’s way into a home field advantage. In Atlanta’s most
recent home game, a 45-28 win over the Panthers,
Carolina committed numerous false start penalties at
critical times. Once series of such calls pinned the
Panthers deep in their own territory, leading to the gamebreaking
punt return for a TD. That return was pulled off
by Harry Douglas, one of a series of young receivers
thriving in connection with the mature play of rookie QB
Matt Ryan. Roddy White, such a disappointment for the
first couple of years of his career, lit up the Saints with 10
catches for 164 yards on Sunday. But the defense was
unable to hold on, and a two-game losing streak was
broken.
Tampa Bay entered their Monday night game in Charlotte
off of consecutive home wins, but gained only 255 and 254
yards in those victories. Monday night road to Sunday
road isn’t ideal scheduling for the Bucs this late in the
season, when fatigue is a factor. After starting the season
as a solid running team, New Orleans’ Pierre Thomas and
Reggie Bush exploited Atlanta’s defense for a combined
182 yards on 16 carries as part of the Saints’ 6.0 yards per
rushing afternoon. But the Bucs may not have the running
game to take advantage, as Tampa Bay has averaged only
100 yards rushing per game in their six games leading into
their Monday night affair
Off a tough divisional loss in which they fought back to
take a lead, only to let it slip away on a late TD, the
Falcons will be desperate for this win. Though the Bucs
will likely have need as well (this is being written prior to
their Monday night game in Charlotte), the Falcons mix of
savvy veterans, heady young talent, and canny coaching,
has reacted well to adversity. Off of their four previous
losses, Atlanta has won all four times, covering the spread
by 18, 8, 21, and 16 in those contests. They remember
the Week 2 loss in Tampa, and that was before they
realized what they were capable of, and will handle the
Bucs for a solid home win. If Tampa Bay beat Carolina on
Monday night this play is enhanced, as Tampa will be
firmly in command of the division with a lead in the
standings and the head-to-head tiebreaker over Carolina.
Falcons by 9.

Bills (+7) over @Jets
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
Buffalo’s trip to Canada was an unmitigated disaster. The
Bills game against the Dolphins was played in the Rogers
Centre in downtown Toronto, not on their home field. This
was the first of an eight-game series in which the Bills will
play in Toronto. Buffalo’s organization felt it was
imperative to play games across the border, to branch out
in an effort to maintain the team’s long-term survival. That
company line of thinking is odd considering that Buffalo
has some of the most loyal and dedicated fans in all of the
NFL. Ralph Wilson Stadium is one tough place to play,
especially in December. And to lose that home field edge
that comes along with snow, cold weather, and intense
support to play in another country under a domed stadium
is simply mind-boggling. Even more so when you factor in
the opponent, a warm-weather team from Miami.
There was, and still is, considerable backlash for this
peculiar move from those who cover and root for the Bills
because of ill-advised comments from some of the players.
Marcus Stroud said, “I guarantee you won’t find any guys
in our locker room that’s complaining about going to play
in a dome.” Langston Walker chimed in with this beauty:
“Well, it’s going to be about 50 degrees warmer than
Orchard Park,” Walker said, “and that’s a good thing. No,
it’s not the friendly confines of The Ralph, but it’s probably
just as good.” Those comments are basically giving the
Bills fans the finger. Combine those words with the fact
that Buffalo put on a pitiful performance in their 16-3 loss
to the Dolphins, and it’s a good thing the Bills are on the
road for this game. After opening the season at 5-1, the
Bills have lost six of their last seven games. Dick Jauron is
on the proverbial hot seat, and its best Buffalo hits the
road here to avoid all of the negativity in Orchard Park.
Brett Favre has cooled off considerably as the year has
gone on. He’s playing like you’d expect a 39 year old to
play, slow. If you’ve watched any part of the Jets games
recently, it’s clearly evident that Favre has lost a step, or
more like two in the past few weeks. His throws are not
crisp, and his ability to make plays out of nothing just
haven’t been there. In the 24-14 loss at San Francisco,
Favre completed 20 passes which went for just 4.4 yards
per pass. Two weeks back, his passes went for only 5.7
yards per pass attempt. The Jets have no ability to throw
the ball downfield right now, and that makes it extremely
difficult to win by a big margin. The Jets beat the Bills 26-
17 as 5-point underdogs in the first meeting despite
gaining less than 300 yards of total offense. Buffalo
dominated that game at the line of scrimmage, but on two
of their drives that had 27 plays and 114 yards gained, the
Bills failed to score any points. Both teams have serious
issues, and in cases like this, the points are always worth
taking. Bills by 1.

Giants (+3, -120) over @Cowboys
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Both of these teams suffered humiliating defeats on
Sunday. The Giants gained only 211 yards in their 20-14
loss to the Eagles in a game that could have been much
worse, as a potential 13-0 Eagle lead became 10-7 when
the Giants blocked a field goal and returned it for a TD on
the last play of the first half. The Cowboys had an
apparent victory over the Steelers in hand, then simply
delivered it to Pittsburgh on a silver platter late in the
contest. But the Giants are the better team and more
likely to overcome their disappointment, and we expect
them to win this game.
Despite the fact that the New York media dominates the
national storylines, Tom Coughlin really doesn’t get enough
credit for the remarkable turnaround he made from an
authoritarian hated by his players to an authoritarian who
knows how to get the best out of his team. For a guy his
age, Coughlin really made a remarkable change in learning
how to really push the right buttons of his players,
especially the veteran leaders. That’s why I think the
Giants, so dominant for so many weeks, can come back
with a big performance despite the loss of Plaxico Burress.
Burress was certainly something of a distraction last week,
and though Antonio Pierce made a lot of tackles Sunday,
he also was primarily responsible for a couple of the Eagles
TD. But the Eagles are a talented team and played, by far,
their best game of the season. The Giants weren’t at their
best, and ran into a buzzsaw. But considering they
entered the game 11-1, and had dominated their schedule
(outgaining all but one of their vanquished opponents),
there’s reason to expect them to bounce back here.
The Cowboys will have a tougher time coming back from
their loss. They had the Steelers beaten, and it would
would have been a huge win. Instead, a series of
turnovers, mistakes, and blown opportunities left them
with a truly shocking loss. Wade Phillips doesn’t seem to
have a lot of control of his ballclub, and had a Ray Gofflevel
of cluelessness on the sideline Sunday. Tony Romo
had a trio of damaging interceptions (though Terrell Owens
and Jason Witten were responsible for one each).
Meddlesome Jerry Jones called out Marion Barber (and by
extension, his medical staff) for not making the trip to
Pittsburgh. While Plaxico Burress is a distraction for the
Giants, there are a lot more distractions for the Cowboys
(TO didn’t exactly look overjoyed in his interactions with
the Cowboys’ staff at the end of the game). The Giants
are the better team, and the more mentally tough team,
and get the win here. Giants by 4.

Giants @Cowboys Under 44
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Playing NFL unders nowadays certainly takes a good bit of
intestinal fortitude. The league rules are geared towards
offense, as you simply cannot breathe on a quarterback or
receiver without getting a penalty, which is of course,
either 15 yards or a spot foul. Also, the new trend is to
play an extremely soft defense with any kind of lead late in
the 2nd or 4th quarters, and there is AT LEAST one score in
the last two minutes of each half in the majority of the
games. You really better have two good defenses and a
line that you believe to be somewhat off and on the right
side of key or semi-key numbers. I think this matchup fits
those criteria, as we have two of the NFL’s Top 10
defenses in both yards per play and total defense. It also
helps that we should get a good bit of playoff-like intensity
with everything seemingly on the line for Dallas, and New
York playing off their second loss of the season.
The Cowboys’ defense played a monster game at
Pittsburgh as they gave up only 10 offensive points. In the
first half alone they held Pittsburgh to a total of 3 points on
four drives that started in Dallas territory after turnovers.
They are as healthy as they’ve been on that side of the ball
in a long while, especially in the secondary, as Terrance
Newman and Pac Man Jones both made several
outstanding plays in coverage against Pittsburgh receivers.
Now, New York’s offensive line will protect Eli Manning a
lot better than Pittsburgh’s did Ben Roethlisberger, but the
G-Men are of course, without Plaxico Burress. Although
there is talent in their WR corps, a new go-to receiver has
yet to emerge.
Dallas may be without Marion Barber (check status,
probably limited if he plays) again here, and although
Tashard Choice is no slouch and performed admirably
running and receiving against Pittsburgh, he is not quite
the pass blocker that Barber is, and that will be big against
the Giants pressure. Tony Romo does not handle pressure
well, whether it be the pressure of a big game or pressure
from defensive players, and I don’t expect him to do much
against the rugged Giants’ D. Expect Dallas to come out a
bit conservative at first, trying to get Romo’s confidence
back after the Pittsburgh debacle. In fact, I expect both
teams to try to establish the run and short passing game in
the early going, as neither wants to make the first mistake
against the kind of pressure these two defenses can bring.
This is the two teams’ 3rd meeting of 2008 (played in NFC
Championship game). The familiarity with each other as
well as the quality of the defenses will make the offenses
earn everything they get here. Physical, divisional affair,
but at this price, we don’t have to have to have a complete
pitchers’ duel to cash our ticket. Play Under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE PLATINUM SHEET

12/11/2008 (301) NEW ORLEANS at (302) CHICAGO
As horrific as my NFL best bets have been this season, and in particular
of late, sometimes you have to swallow your pride and take advice from
others more “in the know”. In this case, the “consultant” more in the know
is my young son A.J., who put this New Orleans-Chicago game in simple
perspective for me…”The Bears can’t stop Drew Brees”. Sometimes,
it’s that simple. As I thought about it more, he’s probably right. This isn’t
the dominant Bears’ defenses of past years. This group gives up 234
YPG passing. If you look back several years, they’ve never fared well
against prolific offenses anyhow: CHICAGO is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units)
versus excellent offensive teams - averaging
>=6 yards/play since 1992. The average
score was CHICAGO 15.7, OPPONENT
25.3 - (Rating = 1*). The StatFox Game
Estimator calls for the Saints to put up 385
yards of offense and 28 points. Those are
big numbers for an underdog and Chicago is
14-38 ATS when it allows between 22-28.
Play: New Orleans +3


12/14/2008 (309) TAMPA BAY at (310)ATLANTA
In my feature NFL column for this week’s
Platinum Sheet, I focus in on several good
late season systems. One of them deals
with revenge and how only good teams are
worthy of playing in revenge spots at this
time of year. Well, as much as I’ve been
fighting the reality, Atlanta is a good team,
particularly at home, and is looking to avenge
its 24-9 loss in Tampa earlier this year. It is
a huge game for the Falcons, who remain
alive in the wildcard hunt despite losing last
week. In any case, they are backed by this
StatFox Super Situation: Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3
(ATLANTA) - revenging a loss against opponent, in a game involving two
good teams (60% to 75%). (32-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (78%, +22.1
units. Rating = 3*). This Atlanta team is rolling offensively of late and
putting up 32+ PPG at home. They are worthy of a play.
Play: Atlanta -2.5


12/14/2008 (317) TENNESSEE at (318) HOUSTON
Houston has “rallied” of late and there are many experts out there who
give them a good shot of beating Tennessee in this one. Apparently
oddsmakers are among those believers, as the 3-point spread
accompanying this game seems very low. However, the Texans three
straight wins have come over Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Green Bay,
none of whom will be found in the postseason this January. The Titans
meanwhile, continue to impress, covering the spread at an 11-1-1 clip
this year. As strange as it sounds, this could be a must-win for the Titans
too, as a loss could put them back to just a game up on Pittsburgh, who
they host next week. That would then make that contest a battle for
home field advantage throughout the playoffs. This team is playing too
well to put so much at stake for that one game. Look for them to take
care of business here.
Play: Tennessee -3


12/14/2008 (325) MINNESOTA at (326) ARIZONA
Oddsmakers seem to be hinting to us
that Arizona will rest on its laurels after
clinching the NFC West Division last week,
installing the Cardinals as a short 3-point
home favorite for Sunday’s game against
Minnesota. I just don’t see that happening
for a club that has waited so long for this
opportunity. Complacency is typically
not a trait of a playoff-starved franchise.
It also doesn’t make sense when that
team is hosting another playoff contender.
Minnesota has struggled on the road this
season, going 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS while
yielding 25.1 PPG. Perhaps the Vikings’
must-win predicament has something to
do with this pointspread? Meanwhile, the
Cardinals are establishing a home field
dominance under Ken Whisenhunt, making
U of P Stadium a tough place for opposing
teams to visit. No one from the NFC North is
a capable playoff club this season. Arizona
is. This game should show the difference.
Play: Arizona -3


12/15/2008 (331) CLEVELAND at (332) PHILADELPHIA
It is the remaining games on the regular season slate for the Eagles
that leads me to believe there will be a sense of urgency accompanying
their Monday night contest vs. Cleveland. Oh yeah, there’s also that
little fact that the Browns haven’t scored a touchdown in three weeks,
putting up just 21 points in that span. With Philadelphia having allowed
just 250.3 YPG in its L4, and regaining that swagger it had defensively
in the beginning of the season, the question begs to be asked…How is
Cleveland going to score? Under Andy Reid, the Eagles are 22-4 SU &
17-9 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5-14 points. His teams typically take
care of business as large chalk. The StatFox Game Estimator pegs
Philly for 27 points. If such is the case, I can’t see Cleveland staying in
the game.
Play: Philadelphia -14


TOP STATFOX POWER RATING EDGES:
1. NEW ENGLAND (-8) over OAKLAND 10
2. SAN DIEGO (-4.5) over KANSAS CITY 7.5
3. NEW ORLEANS (+3) over CHICAGO 5

TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATING EDGES:
1. SAN DIEGO (-4.5) over KANSAS CITY 6.5
2. TENNESSEE (-3) over HOUSTON 6
3. NEW ENGLAND (-8) over OAKLAND 5

TOP NFL STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS - WEEK 15 (ATS & Total)

Sunday, 12/14/2008 (305) DETROIT vs. (306) INDIANAPOLIS
Play Against - Favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) - in a game involving two poor rushing teams - both outrushed by opponents by
40+ YPG, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. (37-9 since 1983.) (80.4%, +27.1 units. Rating=4*)
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (4-0). L5 Seasons: (9-0). L10 Seasons: (16-1).

Sunday, 12/14/2008 (313) SEATTLE vs. (314) ST LOUIS
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ST LOUIS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a loss
against a division rival. (48-15 since 1983.) (76.2%, +31.5 units. Rating=4*)
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (2-0). L5 Seasons: (2-1). L10 Seasons: (13-7).

Sunday, 12/14/2008 (317) TENNESSEE vs. (318) HOUSTON
Play Against - Road favorites (TENNESSEE) - outrushing their opponents by 40 or more yards/game on the season, after
outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. (42-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.8%, +28.8 units. Rating=4*)
The situation’s record this season is: (2-0). L3 Seasons: (13-2). L10 Seasons: (20-10). Since 1983: (80-46).

TOP NFL STATFOX POWER TRENDS - WEEK 15 (ATS & Total)

Sunday, 12/14/2008 (321) DENVER vs. (322) CAROLINA
DENVER is 1-14 ATS (-14.4 Units) after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. The
average score was DENVER 20.4, OPPONENT 28.5 - (Rating = 5*)

Sunday, 12/14/2008 (313) SEATTLE vs. (314) ST LOUIS
Mike Holmgren is 1-14 ATS (-14.4 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=130 rushing yards/game in the second
half of the season as the coach of SEATTLE. The average score was Holmgren 18.9, OPPONENT 22.1 - (Rating = 5*)

Sunday, 12/14/2008 (307) WASHINGTON vs. (308) CINCINNATI
Marvin Lewis is 11-0 UNDER (+11 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games as the coach
of CINCINNATI. The average score was Lewis 19.3, OPPONENT 16.3 - (Rating = 5*)


Sunday, 12/14/2008 (325) MINNESOTA vs. (326) ARIZONA
Ken Whisenhunt is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders as the coach of ARIZONA. The average score
was Whisenhunt 28, OPPONENT 29.1 - (Rating = 4*)

Sunday, 12/14/2008 (329) NY GIANTS vs. (330) DALLAS
Tom Coughlin is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play in the second
half of the season as the coach of NY GIANTS. The average score was Coughlin 23, OPPONENT 20.1 - (Rating = 4*)

Sunday, 12/14/2008 (303) GREEN BAY vs. (304) JACKSONVILLE
GREEN BAY is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) off a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was GREEN
BAY 27.4, OPPONENT 18.3 - (Rating = 4*)

Sunday, 12/14/2008 (307) WASHINGTON vs. (308) CINCINNATI
WASHINGTON is 32-10 ATS (+21 Units) versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=90 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON 24.6, OPPONENT 16 - (Rating = 3*)

Sunday, 12/14/2008 (317) TENNESSEE vs. (318) HOUSTON
Jeff Fisher is 25-6 ATS (+18.4 Units) after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game as the coach of TENNESSEE. The
average score was Fisher 24.1, OPPONENT 17.5 - (Rating = 4*)

Sunday, 12/14/2008 (313) SEATTLE vs. (314) ST LOUIS
Mike Holmgren is 25-6 OVER (+18.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was Holmgren 27.9, OPPONENT 25 - (Rating = 4*)


TOP NFL STATFOX HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS - WEEK 15 (ATS & Total)
Thursday, 12/11/2008 (301) NEW ORLEANS vs. (302) CHICAGO
The OVER is 7-2 in the L9 games between CHICAGO & NEW ORLEANS.
Sunday, 12/14/2008 (329) NY GIANTS vs. (330) DALLAS
The UNDER is 9-4 in the DALLAS-NY GIANTS series in Dallas since 1996.
Sunday, 12/14/2008 (317) TENNESSEE vs. (318) HOUSTON
The OVER is 5-0 in the HOUSTON-TENNESSEE series in Houston since 2003.
Sunday, 12/14/200 (309)TAMPA BAY at (310)ATLANTA
TAMPA BAY is 6-2 SU & ATS at ATLANTA since 1997.
Sunday, 12/14/2008 (315) BUFFALO vs. (316) NY JETS
NY JETS is 9-5 ATS at home vs. BUFFALO since 1994

 

[sdf]

psweep

http://www.zshare.net/download/52531372dc514e13/

 

[BuffaloSabre]

SDF, thanks for posting PS every week.
Anyone with Lawrence yet?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pointwise Basketball 12/12-12/18
<HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->NBA Selections
Key Releases
1--Miami over Atlanta (12/12) 107-87
1--Portland over Sacramento (12/16) 97-76
2--Portland over LA Clipers (12/12) 108-92
2--Cleveland over Minnesota (12/17) 98-86
3--Denver (+) over Dallas (12/15) 98-92
3--Utah over Orlando (12/13) 97-81
4--Miami over Memphis (12/14) 99-90
4--New York (+) over Phoenix 100-101
4--Boston over Atlanta (12/17) 99-86

Best of the Rest...
12/12--New Jersey
12/13--Cleveland, OK City
12/14--San Antonio
12/15--Milwaukee, Utah
12/16--Denver, New York
12/17--San Antonio
12/18--San Antonio

NCAA Key Releases--
1--Michigan over Eastern Michigan (12/13) 81-50
2--Bowling Green over Detroit (12/14) 78-62
3--UL-Monroe (+)over UL-Lafayette (12/15) 69-66
4--Ohio State over Butler (12/13) 71-60
4--Villanova over LaSalle (12/14) 78-54
5--Arkansas State over Florida Int'l (12/18) 71-57
5--Cleveland State (+) over Syracuse (12/15) 75-82

Best of the Rest...
12/12--Iowa
12/13--Kansas, Pepperdine, West Virginia, W. Kentucky, San Francisco, BYU
12/14--Ill-Chicago, UTEP
12/15--Youngstown State
12/16--South Florida
12/17--Illinois State, E. Carolina, Va. Commonwealth, Georgia State, Memphis
12/18--North Carolina
<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence's Playbook #17
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Marc Lawrence's Playbook

http://www.zshare.net/download/5250860398c77d1c/

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northcoast Power Plays 12/11-12/15
<HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS



DET #30 vs IND #14 IND #20 vs DET #31) DET had their best chance for a win LW vs MIN but were held to 2
FG’s & SOD on 3 drives inside the MIN 10 in the 1H. They now have to travel to IND & while Dungy & Marinelli
are good friends, IND has massive edges all across the board & even got SS Sanders back LW. PP gives IND
a 370-255 yd edge & DET may be hard pressed for that with Culpepper quest here as Drew Henson may get
the start. This is a huge line but IND dispatched a weak CIN defense easily LW & Manning has a huge day.
4★ COLTS 39 LIONS 13



(SF #22 vs MIA #13 MIA #10 vs SF #19) SF has pulled off B2B upset wins vs AFC East foes & are playing
very hard for HC Singletary who stands a very good chance of winning the SF HC job now. MIA is 4-22 ATS
as a fav & MLB Crowder admitted after OAK that the team plays to the level of its competition. MIA is 1-4
ATS in its L5 HG’s TY & while PP likes MIA to have a 370-270 yd edge it calls for SF to keep it close backed
up by their huge special teams edge here.
4★ 49ers 18 (+) DOLPHINS 19



(TEN #16 vs HOU #20 HOU #3 vs TEN #3) TEN is 5-0 SU & ATS vs HOU. While they are the AFC South
Champs they don’t have the #1 seed locked up yet. HOU went to a brutally cold weather site with a QB
making his 1st start in a month & picked apart GB with 414 yds passing (67%) with a 2-1 ratio. PP only gives
TEN a 51 yd edge but calls for them to win by a TD. While HOU has the #3 offense they haven’t faced an elite
defense (14, 27, 15, 23) in their 4 game ATS streak. We side with TEN with a very manageable line here.
4★ TITANS 24 TEXANS 17




PIT #26 vs BAL #2 BAL #19 vs PIT #1) PIT stole a win from DAL LW as while the defense forced 5 TO’s the
offense had just 96 yds thru the 1st 3Q. BAL went up 14-0 in the 1st 5:30 vs WAS LW & the Redskins only
points were set up by a Flacco int & McGahee fumble in the 4Q on drives totalling 31 yds. BAL is 6-1 ATS vs
PIT but PP calls for a close game at the line but in a lower scoring affair making the total worth a look.
NO PLAY: RAVENS 18 STEELERS 15
2★ RAVENS/STEELERS: UNDER








GB #11 vs JAX #15 JAX #21 vs GB #23) GB’s playoff hopes are cooked & its NOT due to the play of Rodgers TY.
The defense simply hasn’t been able to stop the run (27th 4.8 ypc) & despite moving CB Woodson to safety they
allowed 11 pass plays of 17+ yds LW. JAX has serious chemistry issues TY & injuries on the OL & inexperience on
the DL have kept them from playing Jaguar ball. PP has this at the line but this is worth a small look for the Over.
NO PLAY: PACKERS 26 JAGUARS 23
1★ PACKERS/JAGUARS: OVER
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Logical Approach 12/11-12/15
<HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->LOGICAL APPROACH




NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK:_HOUSTON + 3 over Tennessee - The Titans wrapped up the AFC South title last week but have not yet clinched the AFC's top seed. That could happen next week when the Titans host Pittsburgh. Houston has played well after starting 0-4, winning 3 in a row and 6 of 9. They remain motivated to achieve the franchise's first winning record and improving upon their 8-8 of last season. Two winnable games remain to finish the season so an upset here gives the Texans a real shot at achieving that goal. Tennessee is not likely to let up because their strength lies with their defense and the Titans did win the first meeting 31-12 but that game was statistically close. With an eye on next week, the Titans are ripe for the upset. Houston's offense has been effective in recent weeks as the running game has resurfaced. And the defense has also fared well during their win streak. Houston wins 20-17.



Other Featured NFL Selections :

JACKSONVILLE + 2 ½ over Green Bay - Jacksonville returns home after a pair of dull efforts in losses at Houston and Chicago. They may not have quit on the season but their level of intensity is down from a year ago when they went 11-5. But their disappointing season is now being matched by that of the Pack as Green Bay's fallen from Playoff contention following 3 straight losses including the last 2 weeks at home. It's hard to back a favored Packer team that is just 2-4 on the road with the wins coming at winless Detroit and at 2-11 Seattle. The Jags have the better overall talent and are better positioned for a better effort returning home. With the Colts and Ravens on deck, this is their best chance for a win the rest of the way. Fundamentally the Jaguars have a significant edge in stopping the run and the Packers' pass offense has not been sharp of late. The teams are statistically even which rarely makes a case for a road favorite. Jacksonville wins 23-16.



KANSAS CITY + 5 over San Diego - The Chargers are one of this season''s biggest busts, notwithstanding last week's explosion against lowly Oakland. The Chiefs continue to play hard but keep coming up just short on the scoreboard. They are better than their 2-11 record and gave San Diego a tight ball game earlier this season. The Chargers are just 1-5 on the road this season and have just played 3 straight at home, making this an unfavorable scheduling situation, especially for a team playing out the string. Kansas City has defeated the Chargers here in 8 of their last 10 meetings. The Chiefs are a very young team and along with youthful mistakes comes a greater chance for improvement and the Chiefs fit that profile on both counts. The defense has been yielding but has also excelled in creating turnovers. The Chargers have not fared well away from home this season and this remains a bitter rivalry for the hosts. Kansas City wins 24-17.



Minnesota + 3 over ARIZONA - Arizona has wrapped up the NFC West title while Minnesota clings to a one game lead over Chicago in the NFC North and thus plays with the greater need. The Cardinals and Vikings are each 8-5 but note that Arizona's success is largely due to their 5-0 record within their very weak NFC West where the other 3 teams are a collective 5-21 outside the Division. Arizona itself is just 3-5 outside the NFC West. Minnesota has the far better defense and the time worn adage of a good defense stops a good offense should apply here. Of specific concern to Arizona is their inability to run the football as they rank last in the league in rushing. Minnesota has the league's #2 rush defense (73 ypg) which suggests the Vikes will concentrate on defending the pass and forcing the Cards to move the ball using their weakness. Those pending DL suspensions are a concern for the Viking which could make the Vikes a bigger underdog if they are unable to play. But there are still enough edges to call for the upset. Minnesota wins 27-23.




New Orleans/Chicago OVER 44
Green Bay/Jacksonville OVER 45
Detroit/Indianapolis UNDER 45
Washington/Cincinnati UNDER 37
Pittsburgh/Baltimore UNDER 34
Denver/Carolina OVER 47
Minnesota/Arizona OVER 48
Cleveland/Philadelphia UNDER 38
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS MEMO


MARTY OTTO
BUFFALO AT NY JETS
Recommendation: New York
The Bills were officially eliminated from the playoffs thanks to Baltimore’s win on Sunday Night. It may be a merciful act considering Buffalo is a battered and beleaguered unit right. After a promising 5-1 start the Bills were hit hard by the injury bug on defense, forced to continuously shuffle in corners, safeties, linebackers and defensive linemen alike. They lost their two best DBs for extended
amounts of time and their best pass rusher (likely for the season). Since the hot start Buffalo is in the midst of a 1-6 SU and ATS run that won’t end any time soon. It’s not just the defense but the offense, which doesn’t have a second
option at WR, lost its playmaking TE and has shuffled QBs thanks to injury. Lee Evans has been completely taken away by the opposition leaving Marshawn Lynch to do the work of 11 men. The Bills will find it difficult to match the Jets intensity as New York looks to snap an embarrassing skid of their own, losing to Denver and San Francisco in the past two weeks. The Jets will control the line of scrimmage defensively and double up on Evans, forcing the Bills into a no win situation. NY stays alive in the division and wild card race with a win on Sunday.



BRENT CROW
TENNESSEE -3 AT HOUSTON
Recommendation: Tennessee

The Titans clinched the AFC South title and a home playoff game last week with their win over Cleveland. What still remains for this Titans team is home field advantage throughout the postseason. They will face a Houston
team that has won three straight to get to 6-7 on the year. The Texans are 4-1 at home on the year as well, but own just one win over a team with a winning record on the year. That win was a 29-28 victory over Miami with their other wins coming against winless Detroit, one-win Cincinnati, 4-9 Cleveland and Jacksonville and the 5-8 Packers. None of those teams play good defense nor do they feature power running games like Tennessee.
This seems like a very cheap price when you consider the Texans defense
has had trouble stopping the run all year. Their defense is 24th in the NFL against the run and won’t have much luck against the Titans’ third ranked rushing offense. Tennessee forced three Matt Schaub interceptions and sacked him three times in the first meeting en route to an easy 31-12 Titans’ win. I expect more of the same here and will lay the road chalk.



TIM TRUSHEL
PITTSBURGH AT BALTIMORE -1
Recommendation: Baltimore
The Ravens are one of the three best teams in the AFC. As we see it there is little to no difference between Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Tennessee. Each of the three teams are fundamentally sound on offense while being predisposed toward the running game. On the defensive side they stop the run, bring plenty of pressure on the quarterback and create plenty of turnovers. Perhaps the main significant difference in the three teams is the weakness along the offensive line for the Pittsburgh Steelers. That weakness could come into play here in this matchup as Ben Roethlisberger will be under constant pressure
and will likely be forced to make plays. Behind center on the other side of the equation
is Joe Flacco. His maturity and solid play behind this offensive line has made all the difference. Overall on the season he has been sacked 18 fewer times and has thrown two fewer interceptions then Roethlisberger. We are not concerned with the situational analysis here as we expect maximum effort from both teams in this huge divisional game. Still it should be noted however that Pittsburgh is off hyped wins against New England and Dallas and may be hard pressed to perform at a peak level. Baltimore is the better fundamental team and with home field advantage we’ll back the Ravens.



ROB VENO
BUFFALO AT NY JETS N/L
Recommendation: New York
Jets found themselves in a “Murphy’s Law” game so to speak last Sunday in San Francisco. If it could go wrong for New York, it did. Five 49er fumbles resulted in only one Jets recovery and one turned into a San Francisco TD. A Jets kickoff
return for a touchdown in the third quarter, that would have given them the lead, was called back and broke the momentum New York was building. The Jets needed to capitalize on the opportunities presented to them because fundamentally they had a difficult time on both sides of the ball with San Francisco. Defensively, they were constantly one step behind the Niners short to intermediate passing attack and offensively their own aerial attack was hurried and out of sync. This week’s matchup versus offensively disoriented Buffalo figures to be a solid fit for the revenge minded Jets. The earlier meeting,
which went the way of the Bills, was one in which New York stopped the running game cold (allowed 30 rushing yards) but they were hurt by QB Trent Edwards and the passing attack. Expect a reversal of fortunes here as things have changed for Buffalo who dropped out of the playoff hunt last week.




ERIN RYNNING
NEW ENGLAND AT OAKLAND +7
Recommendation: Oakland
The Patriots will continue their trek on the West Coast this week with a trip to Oakland. The Patriots and head coach Bill Belichick were able to escape
the Seattle Seahawks last week with a late surge for a 24-21 victory. Troubling for the Patriots entering this contest is their regression on the defensive
side of the football. They’ve now allowed 21, 33, 28 and 34 points over the last four games. Scores like that signal a red flag for a team laying a touchdown on the road. Meanwhile, the Raiders just couldn’t stand prosperity.
After back-to-back spread covers on the road, they reverted back to their embarrassing ways with bad losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers. Still they’ve shown to be capable at times and after a bit of a refresher they’ll be sitting in a good situation to bring their A-game Sunday.
When you consider the matchups between these two teams, the Raiders
are certainly capable of being the better defensive team, while owning the stronger running game over the Patriots. We’ll ignore the visually unappealing
style of the Raiders and back them at home getting the nice price




TEDDY COVERS
SAN DIEGO AT KANSAS CITY +5
Recommendation: Kansas City
This write up needs only one sentence. The 5-8 San Diego Chargers have no business
laying more than a field goal on the road against anybody. Period. End of story. But you know me, I just can’t put out a one sentence write-up, so I’ll make my case against the Chargers right here. We’re talking about a team that is 2-5 straight up in their last seven ball games. The two wins during that span? Well, they beat up on the 3-10 Raiders last week in a game that Oakland forgot to show up for. The other win came by a single point, at home against these same Chiefs. Let’s not forget that San Diego is 1-5 SU on the highway this season, losing
SU four times as a road favorite. Six of the Chargers eight losses this year have come in games where they were favored. The Chargers have been Super Bowl contenders in each of their previous three seasons, yet they’ve lost at least once to the Chiefs in every one of those years. And it’s been KC playing with enthusiasm
and fire in recent weeks, winning on the road at Oakland and taking Denver
to the wire this past Sunday. Look for the Chiefs to continue their improved play against a road favorite that has no business in this spread range on Sunday.



FAIRWAY JAY
GREEN BAY -1 AT JACKSONVILLE
Recommendation: Over
Off a Game of the Year winner on the Saints and a nice 11-2 run in the NFL, let’s shoot for our fourth straight Newsletter Best Bet winner this week. Two teams with high expectations have now seen their season’s crumble with both out of the playoff picture. Jacksonville looks like a disinterested team that has tossed in the towel, and Green Bay’s swiss cheese defense allowed 549 yards to Houston last week and was shredded in their two previous road games. The Jaguars have gone 0-4 SU and ATS their last four games. Jacksonville is also 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS at home this year. Both offenses should be willing to let loose against defenses that each rank in the bottom five of their conference in defensive yards-per-point. Jacksonville has played against three top-tier defenses the past four weeks, and should move the ball more easily against the deflated and disinterested Packers.
Green Bay’s offense is No. 1 in the NFC in yards-per-point, and Aaron Rogers will put the ball in the air often against a Jaguars’ pass defense that ranks in the bottom-tier in yards-per-pass. The Packers have only played one road game under the total, and that was against the Titans’ top defense. Play this one Over.



JARED KLEIN
SAN DIEGO AT KANSAS CITY +5
Recommendation: Kansas City
The San Diego Chargers are still being lined like a team that has a shot at the playoffs as opposed to a 5-8 squad that should be focused on next season. The Chargers are 1-5 on the road this season and one could argue they shouldn’t be laying this type of price in any situation away from Qualcomm Stadium. Simply put, the defense can’t stop anyone ranking 25th in yards allowed and 30th against the pass. That should bode well for first-year starting QB Tyler Thigpen who I have been impressed with over his last seven games: 1,534 yards with 12 TDs and 4 INTs. If you’ll recall the first meeting between the two teams, the Chiefs lost 20-19 after failing to convert a two-point conversion at the end of the game. Despite the 2-11 record, Kansas City has shown the ability to put points on the board, averaging 22.5 ppg over its last seven games. In fact, when look at both squads’ last seven games, we see KC actually outscored
San Diego (20.8 ppg). But the real difference is value. Because of their dismal record, the Chiefs continue to get favorable lines (5-2 ATS run). San Diego is on a 2-5 ATS run this line is simply indicative of the true separation of both teams. Bad team vs. bad team, but the home squad is getting more than a field goal? Take the points.




ED CASH
TAMPA BAY AT ATLANTA N/L
Recommendation: Atlanta
This marks the second straight huge division road game for the Bucs and I don’t like their chances in the Georgia Dome. Win or lose, Tampa Bay will be coming off of a very physical game at Carolina and playing on a short week. Tampa has had some success on the road this season, going 3-3, but nothing like what they have done at home where they are 6-0. The Falcons are very similar at 5-1 at home and 3-4 on the road. After losing last week on the road at New Orleans, this becomes a huge game for the 8-5 Falcons. They desperately need a win to have any division hopes and a wildcard spot. I was impressed with the Falcons in their last two road games. I like others were initially sceptical of this team but they have proven to be on of the better teams in the NFC. Rookie quarterback,
Matt Ryan, plays like a 10-year veteran and has the entire offense under his command. If the Falcons can pick up a few solid defenders in the offseason,
a run at the Super Bowl next season is not out of the question. But before we get there a berth in the postseason is within reach and a win this weekend would greatly help their cause. We’ll continue to back NFC South home teams.



DONNIE BLACK
WASHINGTON -7 AT CINCINNATI
O/U 36
Recommendation: Over
We are going to take a contrarian opinion in this match up as two of the league’s four worst offenses meet. Statistically the Washington Redskins can move the football from the 20-to-the-20, but they struggle inside the red zone. In the case of Cincinnati, the Bengals simply can not move the football. Washington ranks 15th in the league in total yardage but is ahead of only Oakland, Cincinnati and St. Louis in points per game. Combined these two average just 28.6 offensive points per game as Washington scores just 16.8 while Cincinnati averages only 11.8 points per game. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has led this team to a total 29 points combined in the last four games. In six of their last seven games they have been held to 13 points or less. This past week the Bengals became just the twentieth team in the last 20 years to score three or fewer points in back-to-back games. Teams in this situation have gone over to a mark of 16-3. Plus as we run projections we find the market has compensated significantly and we see a great opportunity here to get over the number as neither team will bring much pressure.
There will plenty of sustained drive success and we’ll play it over the total.




HELMUT SPORTS
MINNESOTA AT ARIZONA N/L
Recommendation: Arizona
The Cardinals are 5-1 in games at home only losing to the Super Bowl Champion Giants.
While record wise at 3-4 it may appear that the Vikings have done OK this season on the road, however in a couple of those road wins they need massive breaks just to squeak the games out. The win against the Saints they had a blocked FG run back for a touchdown. The game against Jacksonville they benefited from a botched snap on the first play that was run in for a touchdown and also recovered the fumble on the ensuing kickoff. Quietly the Cardinals have put together some nice defensive statistics particularly
against the run. The currently have the seventh best defense against the rush in yards per rush attempt at 3.79. The Vikings have struggled against the pass at times and this plays right into the strength of the Cardinals, which have the second ranked passing offense in the league. I’m not sure what the status of Gus Frerotte is for next week but if Jackson is forced to play they will certainly be a one-dimensional outfit. In Jackson’s first two starts this season, he barely completed half of his passes and was subsequently benched. Also there is some question to the availability of pro bowl tackles Pat Williams and Kevin Williams due to violating the league’s steroids and related substances policy.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Statfox Platinum Sheet - 12/11- 12/15

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->THE PLATINUM SHEET



12/11/2008 (301) NEW ORLEANS at (302) CHICAGO
As horrific as my NFL best bets have been this season, and in particular
of late, sometimes you have to swallow your pride and take advice from
others more “in the know”. In this case, the “consultant” more in the know
is my young son A.J., who put this New Orleans-Chicago game in simple
perspective for me…”The Bears can’t stop Drew Brees”. Sometimes,
it’s that simple. As I thought about it more, he’s probably right. This isn’t
the dominant Bears’ defenses of past years. This group gives up 234
YPG passing. If you look back several years, they’ve never fared well
against prolific offenses anyhow: CHICAGO is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units)
versus excellent offensive teams - averaging
>=6 yards/play since 1992. The average
score was CHICAGO 15.7, OPPONENT
25.3 - (Rating = 1*). The StatFox Game
Estimator calls for the Saints to put up 385
yards of offense and 28 points. Those are
big numbers for an underdog and Chicago is
14-38 ATS when it allows between 22-28.
Play: New Orleans +3




12/14/2008 (309) TAMPA BAY at (310)ATLANTA
In my feature NFL column for this week’s
Platinum Sheet, I focus in on several good
late season systems. One of them deals
with revenge and how only good teams are
worthy of playing in revenge spots at this
time of year. Well, as much as I’ve been
fighting the reality, Atlanta is a good team,
particularly at home, and is looking to avenge
its 24-9 loss in Tampa earlier this year. It is
a huge game for the Falcons, who remain
alive in the wildcard hunt despite losing last
week. In any case, they are backed by this
StatFox Super Situation: Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3
(ATLANTA) - revenging a loss against opponent, in a game involving two
good teams (60% to 75%). (32-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (78%, +22.1
units. Rating = 3*). This Atlanta team is rolling offensively of late and
putting up 32+ PPG at home. They are worthy of a play.
Play: Atlanta -2.5





12/14/2008 (317) TENNESSEE at (318) HOUSTON
Houston has “rallied” of late and there are many experts out there who
give them a good shot of beating Tennessee in this one. Apparently
oddsmakers are among those believers, as the 3-point spread
accompanying this game seems very low. However, the Texans three
straight wins have come over Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Green Bay,
none of whom will be found in the postseason this January. The Titans
meanwhile, continue to impress, covering the spread at an 11-1-1 clip
this year. As strange as it sounds, this could be a must-win for the Titans
too, as a loss could put them back to just a game up on Pittsburgh, who
they host next week. That would then make that contest a battle for
home field advantage throughout the playoffs. This team is playing too
well to put so much at stake for that one game. Look for them to take
care of business here.
Play: Tennessee -3





12/14/2008 (325) MINNESOTA at (326) ARIZONA
Oddsmakers seem to be hinting to us
that Arizona will rest on its laurels after
clinching the NFC West Division last week,
installing the Cardinals as a short 3-point
home favorite for Sunday’s game against
Minnesota. I just don’t see that happening
for a club that has waited so long for this
opportunity. Complacency is typically
not a trait of a playoff-starved franchise.
It also doesn’t make sense when that
team is hosting another playoff contender.
Minnesota has struggled on the road this
season, going 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS while
yielding 25.1 PPG. Perhaps the Vikings’
must-win predicament has something to
do with this pointspread? Meanwhile, the
Cardinals are establishing a home field
dominance under Ken Whisenhunt, making
U of P Stadium a tough place for opposing
teams to visit. No one from the NFC North is
a capable playoff club this season. Arizona
is. This game should show the difference.
Play: Arizona -3




12/15/2008 (331) CLEVELAND at (332) PHILADELPHIA
It is the remaining games on the regular season slate for the Eagles
that leads me to believe there will be a sense of urgency accompanying
their Monday night contest vs. Cleveland. Oh yeah, there’s also that
little fact that the Browns haven’t scored a touchdown in three weeks,
putting up just 21 points in that span. With Philadelphia having allowed
just 250.3 YPG in its L4, and regaining that swagger it had defensively
in the beginning of the season, the question begs to be asked…How is
Cleveland going to score? Under Andy Reid, the Eagles are 22-4 SU &
17-9 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5-14 points. His teams typically take
care of business as large chalk. The StatFox Game Estimator pegs
Philly for 27 points. If such is the case, I can’t see Cleveland staying in
the game.
Play: Philadelphia -14




TOP STATFOX POWER RATING EDGES:

1. NEW ENGLAND (-8) over OAKLAND 10
2. SAN DIEGO (-4.5) over KANSAS CITY 7.5
3. NEW ORLEANS (+3) over CHICAGO 5


TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATING EDGES:

1. SAN DIEGO (-4.5) over KANSAS CITY 6.5
2. TENNESSEE (-3) over HOUSTON 6
3. NEW ENGLAND (-8) over OAKLAND 5



TOP NFL STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS - WEEK 15 (ATS & Total)



Sunday, 12/14/2008 (305) DETROIT vs. (306) INDIANAPOLIS
Play Against - Favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) - in a game involving two poor rushing teams - both outrushed by opponents by
40+ YPG, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. (37-9 since 1983.) (80.4%, +27.1 units. Rating=4*)
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (4-0). L5 Seasons: (9-0). L10 Seasons: (16-1).


Sunday, 12/14/2008 (313) SEATTLE vs. (314) ST LOUIS
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ST LOUIS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a loss
against a division rival. (48-15 since 1983.) (76.2%, +31.5 units. Rating=4*)
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (2-0). L5 Seasons: (2-1). L10 Seasons: (13-7).


Sunday, 12/14/2008 (317) TENNESSEE vs. (318) HOUSTON
Play Against - Road favorites (TENNESSEE) - outrushing their opponents by 40 or more yards/game on the season, after
outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. (42-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.8%, +28.8 units. Rating=4*)
The situation’s record this season is: (2-0). L3 Seasons: (13-2). L10 Seasons: (20-10). Since 1983: (80-46).



TOP NFL STATFOX POWER TRENDS - WEEK 15 (ATS & Total)


Sunday, 12/14/2008 (321) DENVER vs. (322) CAROLINA
DENVER is 1-14 ATS (-14.4 Units) after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. The
average score was DENVER 20.4, OPPONENT 28.5 - (Rating = 5*)



Sunday, 12/14/2008 (313) SEATTLE vs. (314) ST LOUIS
Mike Holmgren is 1-14 ATS (-14.4 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=130 rushing yards/game in the second
half of the season as the coach of SEATTLE. The average score was Holmgren 18.9, OPPONENT 22.1 - (Rating = 5*)



Sunday, 12/14/2008 (307) WASHINGTON vs. (308) CINCINNATI
Marvin Lewis is 11-0 UNDER (+11 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games as the coach
of CINCINNATI. The average score was Lewis 19.3, OPPONENT 16.3 - (Rating = 5*)




Sunday, 12/14/2008 (325) MINNESOTA vs. (326) ARIZONA
Ken Whisenhunt is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders as the coach of ARIZONA. The average score
was Whisenhunt 28, OPPONENT 29.1 - (Rating = 4*)


Sunday, 12/14/2008 (329) NY GIANTS vs. (330) DALLAS
Tom Coughlin is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play in the second
half of the season as the coach of NY GIANTS. The average score was Coughlin 23, OPPONENT 20.1 - (Rating = 4*)


Sunday, 12/14/2008 (303) GREEN BAY vs. (304) JACKSONVILLE
GREEN BAY is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) off a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was GREEN
BAY 27.4, OPPONENT 18.3 - (Rating = 4*)



Sunday, 12/14/2008 (307) WASHINGTON vs. (308) CINCINNATI
WASHINGTON is 32-10 ATS (+21 Units) versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=90 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON 24.6, OPPONENT 16 - (Rating = 3*)


Sunday, 12/14/2008 (317) TENNESSEE vs. (318) HOUSTON
Jeff Fisher is 25-6 ATS (+18.4 Units) after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game as the coach of TENNESSEE. The
average score was Fisher 24.1, OPPONENT 17.5 - (Rating = 4*)


Sunday, 12/14/2008 (313) SEATTLE vs. (314) ST LOUIS
Mike Holmgren is 25-6 OVER (+18.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was Holmgren 27.9, OPPONENT 25 - (Rating = 4*)




TOP NFL STATFOX HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS - WEEK 15 (ATS & Total)

Thursday, 12/11/2008 (301) NEW ORLEANS vs. (302) CHICAGO
The OVER is 7-2 in the L9 games between CHICAGO & NEW ORLEANS.

Sunday, 12/14/2008 (329) NY GIANTS vs. (330) DALLAS
The UNDER is 9-4 in the DALLAS-NY GIANTS series in Dallas since 1996.

Sunday, 12/14/2008 (317) TENNESSEE vs. (318) HOUSTON
The OVER is 5-0 in the HOUSTON-TENNESSEE series in Houston since 2003.

Sunday, 12/14/200 (309)TAMPA BAY at (310)ATLANTA
TAMPA BAY is 6-2 SU & ATS at ATLANTA since 1997.

Sunday, 12/14/2008 (315) BUFFALO vs. (316) NY JETS
NY JETS is 9-5 ATS at home vs. BUFFALO since 1994
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence's Playbook


SMART BOX
Coaching Down the Stretch


Listed alongside are the best and worst head coaches and their NFL career ATS records during Games 13 thru 16,
minimum 6 results (current affiliation in parenthesis) prior to the final four weeks of this season.

HOME

Kubiak (HOU) 5-1
Holmgren (SEA) 20-10-1
Belichick (NE) 16-8
Lewis (CIN) 2-7-1
Haslett (STL) 4-10


AWAY

Fox (CAR) 9-4
Reid (PHI) 14-7
Dungy (IND) 7-16


FAVORITE

Jauron (BUF) 6-2
Fisher (TEN) 17-6
Smith (CHI) 2-5-1


DOG

Reid (PHI) 13-6
Holmgren (SEA) 13-6-2






AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON any NFL division home dog off back-to-back wins if their last game was on the non-division road as a dog of 4 or more points.

Play On: HOUSTON TEXANS

ATS W-L Record
Since 1980: 10-1 (91%)


INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK

NFC South Division teams are
23-2 SU and 18-6-1 ATS at home this season,
including 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in division games.



5* BEST BET
HOUSTON over Tennessee by 10
Now here’s a dog that doesn’t realize it owns a losing record. Riding
a 3-0 SU and ATS winning streak and 9-4 ITS (In The Stats) this
season, the Texans are the only sub .500 team in the league that
gains more yards (381) than it allows (342). With QB Matt Schaub
back in the lineup (he tossed for 414 yards in last week’s win at
Green Bay), Houston is still mathematically alive in the race for a
Wild Card spot in the wide-open AFC. A win here today, next week
at Oakland and then back home to close out the season against
Chicago could do it. Gary Kubiak is one of our ‘Play On’ SMART BOX
coaches coming down the stretch and we’re certainly not about
to fade that sagacious square. Especially with the Titans still in a
celebratory mood after clinching the division title last week and our
AWESOME ANGLE at work in this game. Tennessee drops to 3-16
ATS as a favorite against an opponent off back-to-back SU and ATS
wins. Here comes Houie



4* BEST BET
San Francisco over MIAMI by 7
What to make of the upstart Dolphins? They now control their own
destiny in the AFC East Division and appear to be playoff bound.
That’s quite an accomplishment for a 1-win team from a year ago.
Sure, they’ve benefi ted from a ridiculously weak schedule (their wins
have come against teams that currently own a collective win-loss
record of 34-57 this season). Our biggest problem in backing them
this week is that they’ve still yet to cash as a favorite under rookie
coach Tony Sparano (0-4 ATS). True, the Niners are another West
Coast team playing a game in the dreaded East Coast time zone but
they don’t have to win this game to get the cash (although we feel
they will). Frisco has cashed in 4 of its 5 games since its Bye Week
and is taking to Mike Singletary’s playbook. The Fish’s 3-18 ATS mark
as home favorites of more than 6 points off a win puts this one on
ice. Besides, the Niners beat the Bills in Buffalo two weeks ago. As
Iron Mike would say, “We don’t need no stinkin’ time zone to win
a game!”




3* BEST BET
KANSAS CITY over San Diego by 6
The Chargers are back! The Chargers are back! Yeah, sure and so are
sub-prime loans. Let’s get one thing straight. A win and cover against
the Oakland Raiders is simply a false sense of security as teams in this
role are just 84-104-5 ATS dating all the way back to 1980, including
5-11 SU and ATS if they scored 34 or more points at home against
Oakland and are now on the road after having been camped at home
the last three weeks. At 1-5 SU on the road this season (the only win
against – you guessed it – the Raiders), the Chargers continue to allow
more yards (352) then they gain (332) on the season. On the fl ip side,
the Chiefs have not thrown in the towel while covering the number
in 5 of its last 7 games. They will take the fi eld with added incentive
today to make amends from a 54-31 previous home loss to Buffalo, the
most points ever allowed in Chiefs’ history. Kansas City’s sterling 24-9
SU and 26-7 ATS record as a home dog against opponents off a win,
including 18-4 ATS when laced with revenge, should fi nd the Chiefs
looking to add a new scalp. And down goes Diego




Thursday, December 11th
CHICAGO over New Orleans by 1
On the surface, a cold and blustery December night in Chicago does not
fi gure to serve the climate-controlled Saints well. That is, however, until our
database kicks into the equation. The Bears looked to have the road paved
to the playoffs by the schedule maker when he awarded them a pair of
three-game homestands this season. Little did he realize that home teams
in the 2nd of a 3-game regular season home stand struggle when playing
off a SU and ATS win and hosting a .500 or greater foe seeking revenge
(Chicago has beaten New Orleans three straight times, including a seasonender
that cost them a .500 record last year and a playoff loss here in 2006).
That’s because these weighty hosts are just 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS in this role
since 1980. And we’ll bet you didn’t know that NO team in the league has
fared better than the Saints in the stat-wars this season where they are 10-2-
1 ITS (In The Stats). Now there’s a bar bet you’ll win, hands down. Dome be
damned… we’re feeling mighty saintly here tonight.




Sunday, December 14th
JACKSONVILLE over Green Bay by 1
Call out the bugler. It’s time to blow taps on the 2008 season for the Packers.
At home in a must-win situation against an opponent primed like a pump
for a letdown, Green Bay gagged and let us down at home in a major way
last Sunday. They now ride a 0-3 SU and ATS losing skein into Jacksonville
wondering where it all went wrong. The Bye Week didn’t help as they’ve
managed just one win in six games since taking a wink. Meanwhile, the
Jaguars are in similar straits. They check in on a 0-4 SU and ATS slide and are
an incredulous 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS at Municipal Stadium this season – that
from a team that went 18-6 SU and 16-8 ATS here the previous three seasons.
Our guess is they are hungrier than Green Bay is caring. We can’t back a road
favorite that may have packed it in.



INDIANAPOLIS over Detroit by 13
Yes, the Colts look like a runaway stallion at this stage of the season while
the Lions look like a team about ready to set NFL history. Detroit tried
desperately last week to shake the enigma of being the league’s fi rst team
to never post a win in a 16-game regular season. On the other hand, Indy
posted its best numbers of the year in a 32-point romp over the Bengals on
this fi eld last Sunday. So why is it, you ask, we would have any inkling of
lining up with these pussycats? Simply put, double-digit chalk in this loop
has not fared well this season, going 10-18 ATS overall. Worse, double-digit
home favorites against winless teams have been pathetic, going 1-10 ATS.
In fact, dating back to 1985, any NFL double-digit home favorite during the
2nd half of the season is just 1-12 ATS when hosting a maiden looking for
its fi rst win. With Indy looking dead ahead to season-ending revenge games
against division rivals Jacksonville and Tennessee, this looks like a nice spot
for the Lions to practice their roar. Insert earplug and do Detroit.



CINCINNATI over Washington by 4
Here’s another ghastly dog on a card just loaded with them this week. Only
this time, like the Packers, the Redskins look just about ready to stick a fork
into themselves. After a 4-1 SU and ATS getaway, Washington is just 3-5
SU and 1-7 ATS since, with the wins coming against the likes of Cleveland,
Detroit and Seattle. Realizing Cincinnati takes on a similar aura, we can’t get
past the fact the Skins’ only stat win the last fi ve weeks has come against the
Seahawks in a win-no-cover at Qwest Field. Granted, the Bengals have lost
more than their stripes this season but they are an ‘Ugly Pig’ that battled
the Eagles to a 13-13 tie here a month ago. When things smell this odorous
you simply reach for a clothespin and apply it tightly to the nose. Cincinnati
to win.




ATLANTA over Tampa Bay by 6
We’ll be the fi rst to admit we started working ourselves up into a lather at
the prospects of taking down these high-fl ying Falcons this week. Then the
checks-and-balances appeared. For openers, Atlanta has not dropped backto-
back games this season. Then the matter of revenge from a 24-9 setback
suffered in Week Two at Tampa factors in… as well as our INCREDIBLE STAT
(see page 2). And don’t forget the Bucs’ 1-10 ATS mark on the December
road with a .500 or greater record off a division game. Tampa’s 0-3 SU and
ATS mark in division duels after a Monday night appearance speaks volumes
(as did the 300 rushing yards they allowed to Carolina Monday night).
Like we said, we’ve once again worked ourselves up into a lather singing
praises… for Atlanta today!




ST. LOUIS over Seattle by 3
Egad! Just what we need on a card fi lled with bad teams: two of them going
head-to-head in a who-cares matchup. If there is any solace in this game,
it’s that the winner will escape the basement in the NFC West Division.
Amazingly, St. Louis has dressed in dog-cloth seventeen straight games,
including every game this season. Sure, they are 1-12 ATS with a losing
record in division games. And the Seabags are have won the cabbage three
straight times in this series, including a 37-13 win as 9-point home favorites
in Week Three this season. The bottom line is the Rams will be an’ Ugly Pig’
should they take points in this disaster. Seattle as a road favorite? Now that’s
repulsive!


NY JETS over Buffalo by 6
A division rematch featuring two teams doing the two-step – backwards,
that is. The Flyboys were sitting atop the AFC East three weeks ago before
crashing as favorites against Denver and San Francisco. Likewise for Buffalo,
who hasn’t paid the bills in its last two games as chalk against Miami and
San Francisco. The inclination is to back Buffi e in a payback from a 26-17 loss
as 5-point home favorites six weeks ago. Despite New York’s dismal 1-6 ATS
mark as a favorite in December in games with both teams off a loss, Buffalo’s
1-6 SU and ATS run of late will likely keep the rubber band in place.


Pittsburgh over BALTIMORE by 3
The Steelers kicked it in gear when they needed to, rallying for 17 unanswered
points in the fi nal 7:15 against Dallas to storm back for a 20-13 win. That
keeps them one-leg up on the surging Ravens for the top spot in the AFC
Central, making this game the biggest of the season for both clubs. And what
a matchup it is, one that features the top two defenses in the league. Both
teams are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three tilts and obviously playing their
best ball of the season. Pittsburgh will put its 11-1-1 ATS mark on the division
road against an opponent off a win while Baltimore counters with its 6-1 ATS
record in this series. The bottom line: when push comes to shove we’ll put our
money on the future Hall of Fame quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger) against
the rookie (Joe Flacco) in a big-time game for the cheese.




CAROLINA over Denver by 6
Wow. Carolina’s Monday night mauling of Tampa was impressive, indeed.
They have now put themselves into position to win out and gain a Bye in the
NFC playoffs. And the way NFC South teams have performed at home this
season (see this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT on page 2), it’s diffi cult to step in
their path. Meanwhile, the Broncos enter with a fat 3-game lead in the AFC
West Division despite allowing more points than they’ve scored this season.
Mike Shanahan’s 11-2 ATS career mark as a road dog of less than 7 points off
back-to-back wins warrants attention but not enough to make the call.


ARIZONA over Minnesota by 7
Confl icting angles make this a dizzying call. The Vikings fi nd themselves in
a theory we call AAHAA, or a team that is on the road off a road game,
preceded by a home game that was preceded by back-to-back road games.
The sequence being, Away, Away, Home, Away and Away. As you might
expect, teams tend to tire in these scenarios. On the other side of the coin,
they are a dog that failed to cover the number as double-digit chalk last
week, generally a nice ‘play-on’ spot. With QB Gus Frerrote iffy and Minny
1-7 SU and ATS in its fi nal road game of the season, we instead point to
Arizona’s 7-1 ATS mark as a favorite against opponents riding a 3-game win
streak. Aahaa, now that was easy.



New England over OAKLAND by 7
Rather than return home from a win at Seattle last Sunday, the Patriots
opted to stay on the left coast to prepare for this game. Bill Belichick realizes
a loss here today means last week’s come-from-behind victory would be for
naught. Understand, the Pats have struggled on the road against losing
teams from Game Thirteen out, going just 2-13 ATS. They are also a ‘Super
Bowl Loser’ laying points on the non-division road, a 13-34-2 ATS losing
proposition. With the Raiders riding a 6-18 ATS run as home dogs, this
becomes a tough call. Your move.



DALLAS over NY Giants by 4
The biggest game of the season on the NFC side of things fi nds the Cowboys
back home looking to avenge their worst loss of the season, a 35-14 defeat
suffered at New York the fi rst week in November. There was no Tony Romo
for Dallas in that game. He’s back now and since his return the Cowboys are
3-1 SU and ATS, managing to win the stats in all four games. The biggest
number in Dallas’ favor is an 11-1 ATS mark with revenge off a SU and ATS
loss against a division foe off a loss. The Giants counter with a 7-2-1 ATS
record in this series. They are also a mind-boggling 15-1 SU and ATS in their
last sixteen games away from the Big Apple. Tough numbers to fade on
both sides of the ball, wouldn’t you agree?



Monday, December 15th
PHILADELPHIA over Cleveland by 10
Now that was the Eagles we’ve all grown to admire. A convincing 20-14
victory at New York against the Giants as 7-point dogs puts them back in
the playoff picture. And their 13-2 ATS mark in games after taking on the
G-Men is impressive. What we don’t like, though, is the severe role change
in this contest. That and the fact that Cleveland coach Romeo ‘Lame Duck’
Crennel is 8-0 ATS in games off a loss of 17 or more points. He’s also 3-
0-1 ATS as a dog of more than 7 points in NFC frays. With Philly off the
NYG revenge win and having season-ending division revenge games up
next with Washington and Dallas, the points become the play here tonight.
Make it a Brownie Monday.



TOTALS

3* Dolphins OVER
4*Texans OVER
5* Bengals UNDER